Predictions are cheap, machines have been faster than humans for some time, but when inserted in a set of tasks that that need to be done can be very different. Thoughtful ideas here:
Intelligent Machines
Experts Predict When Artificial Intelligence Will Exceed Human Performance
Trucking will be computerized long before surgery, computer scientists say. by Emerging Technology from the arXiv May 31, 2017
Artificial intelligence is changing the world and doing it at breakneck speed. The promise is that intelligent machines will be able to do every task better and more cheaply than humans. Rightly or wrongly, one industry after another is falling under its spell, even though few have benefited significantly so far.
And that raises an interesting question: when will artificial intelligence exceed human performance? More specifically, when will a machine do your job better than you?
Today, we have an answer of sorts thanks to the work of Katja Grace at the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford and a few pals. To find out, these guys asked the experts. They surveyed the world’s leading researchers in artificial intelligence by asking them when they think intelligent machines will better humans in a wide range of tasks. And many of the answers are something of a surprise. .... "
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