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Sunday, September 15, 2019

Certainty is Unusual

Jason Brownlee does his usual good job of explaining important concepts.   Here largely non technical.  And this is perhaps the most important.  Often the hardest to explain to decision makers, despite the fact that they deal with the problem every day.  Risk must always be considered.   Heartily recommend you subscribe.  See the 'Brownlee' tag below for other tutorials from Jason I have mentioned.

What Is Probability?  by Jason Brownlee  

Uncertainty involves making decisions with incomplete information, and this is the way we generally operate in the world.

Handling uncertainty is typically described using everyday words like chance, luck, and risk.

Probability is a field of mathematics that gives us the language and tools to quantify the uncertainty of events and reason in a principled manner.

In this post, you will discover a gentle introduction to probability.

After reading this post, you will know:

Certainty is unusual and the world is messy, requiring operating under uncertainty.
Probability quantifies the likelihood or belief that an event will occur.
Probability theory is the mathematics of uncertainty.

Let’s get started. ... 

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