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Friday, November 10, 2017

Chinese Economics

Been looking at the 'One Belt, One Road Initiative'.  Earlier we had looked at modeling retail demand in Chinese markets using agent simulation modeling, as it predicted future supply chains.    See china tag and 'Agent Models' below.  This Wharton view is of interest. Continuing to examine.

Will President Xi Jinping Let Markets Decide China’s Future?

China’s twice-a-decade Communist Party congress wrapped up on October 26 with party head and President Xi Jinping claiming a place alongside revolutionary leader Mao Tse-tung in the pantheon of modern Chinese heroes. In addressing the congress, Xi focused on contradictions the party faces in steering China toward a brighter future, much as Mao highlighted “class contradictions” decades earlier.

But the party gathering did little to clarify how the leadership plans to handle the challenges simmering within the world’s second-largest economy, and especially within its chaotic financial system.

Franklin Allen, an emeritus Wharton professor of finance, and a professor of finance and economics at Imperial College in London, questions Xi’s appetite for painful reforms that are needed to rebalance China’s economy away from its longtime heavy reliance on construction investment and exports. “Xi has established tremendous political power. Now the question is how much of that he will turn into economic reforms,” Allen says. For now, Xi seems to prefer using his “One Belt, One Road Initiative,” to expand Chinese supply chains and market access, as well as its geopolitical influence, across the developing world. In the meantime, on the domestic front, “I would not be surprised if there was slow and gradual reform.” .... "  

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