When will the COVID-19 pandemic end?

McKinsey writes.   And what is the definition of  'ends'?   Normalcy is? 

August 23, 2021 | Article

By Sarun Charumilind, Matt Craven, Jessica Lamb, Adam Sabow, Shubham Singhal, and Matt Wilson

When will the COVID-19 pandemic end?

This article updates our perspectives on when the coronavirus pandemic will end to reflect the latest information on vaccine rollout, variants of concern, and disease progression. Among high-income countries, cases caused by the Delta variant reversed the transition toward normalcy first in the United Kingdom, during June and July of 2021, and subsequently in the United States and elsewhere. Our own analysis supports the view of others that the Delta variant has effectively moved overall herd immunity out of reach in most countries for the time being. The United Kingdom’s experience nevertheless suggests that once a country has weathered a wave of Delta-driven cases, it may be able to resume the transition toward normalcy. Beyond that, a more realistic epidemiological endpoint might arrive not when herd immunity is achieved but when COVID-19 can be managed as an endemic disease. The biggest overall risk would likely then be the emergence of a significant new variant.  ... ''