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Thursday, April 08, 2021

Defining Epidemics

Late to this, but interesting and well done. . Mostly non technical and visually presented.

Chasing the Elusive Numbers That Define Epidemics

By Jordana Cepelewicz, Staff Writer   in Quanta Magazine

Most modeling efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic have sought to address urgent practical concerns. But some groups aim to bolster the theoretical underpinnings of that work instead.

Researchers can’t directly observe many key features of disease transmission. As a result, they rely on statistical models to translate what they can see to what they want to know. But they’re finding that for COVID-19 in particular, some of these methods have been giving them the wrong answers.  ... " 

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