Common Cognitive Traps in Innovation

In the HBR:  (Requires free registration):   Key point being made is that estimation error can be a key element for building on innovation.  Always try to build numerical estimations of facts, then verify them with reality.  " ... Which is the more likely cause of death — shark attack or falling airplane parts? The answer to Nobel prize winning psychologist Daniel Kahnemann’s question is surprising; falling airplane parts. (In fact, you are 30 times more likely to die from a piece of falling airplane than you are at the jaws of a shark.) We have tested this query with senior executives across multiple continents, and they inevitably get it wrong. Why does this happen? Events are perceived as more likely to occur if they are easier to bring to mind. We have the TV special Shark Week and movies like Jaws to remind us of the danger of sharks, but there is no Airplane Debris Week. With unfamiliar, low probability events,  disproportionate media coverage can lead to gross estimation errors. ... "