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Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Superforecasting Update

For some time have followed GoodJudgment  and their 'superforecasting' services.   Most recently got a new overview with considerable efforts and claims.    Since very accurate forecasting would seem to be fundamentally unbeatable in many domains, why believe it?  May depend on the definition of a correct forecast in a given context.  See their work with returns to normality with Covid.  And 'Right ways to think about the future'.

Why Superforecasting?

When you make decisions based on precise probability forecasts, rather than hunches, the benefits are game-changing.

Gain a competitive edge

Making decisions without precise probability forecasts is like playing poker without counting cards. Outsmart your competition with well-calibrated forecasts.

Manage risk

Convert strategic uncertainty into manageable risk to avoid costly mistakes.

Seize opportunities

Identify expected outcomes before others recognize them so that you can capitalize on opportunities quickly and with confidence.  From groundbreaking theory to powerhouse practice

In 2011, IARPA – the US intelligence community’s equivalent to DARPA – launched a massive competition to identify cutting-edge methods to forecast geopolitical events. Four years, 500 questions, and over a million forecasts later, the Good Judgment Project (GJP) – led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania – emerged as the undisputed victor in the tournament. GJP’s forecasts were so accurate that they even outperformed intelligence analysts with access to classified data.

Good Judgment Inc is now making this winning approach to harnessing the wisdom of the crowd available for commercial use. Our clients benefit from the externally validated forecasting methodology that made the Good Judgment Project so successful.

Today, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters deliver unparalleled accuracy on forecasting questions across the political, economic and social spectrum. And, we train others to apply this evidence-based methodology within their own teams.  .... '

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