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Friday, January 11, 2019

Predicting Results in Investigation of Crimes and Legal Cases

A risk analysis plugged into known processes that include outcome data and costs.   Might also be used for predicting outcome of legal cases in general.

U.K. Police Force Is Dropping Tricky Cases on Advice of an Algorithm 
New Scientist  By Joshua Howgego

The Kent Police Department in the U.K. is using an algorithm to help decide which crimes are solvable and should be investigated by officers. The Evidence Based Investigation Tool (EBIT) generates a probability score of a crime's solvability. Since it began using EBIT, the department investigates about half as many reported assaults and public order offenses, saving time and money. EBIT was created by University of Cambridge researcher Kent McFadzein, who trained the algorithm on thousands of assaults and public order offenses. The system identifies eight factors that affect whether a case is solvable, including whether there were witnesses, closed-circuit TV footage, or a named suspect. Said Ben Linton of the Metropolitan Police, “Police officers naturally want to investigate everything to catch offenders. But if the solvability analysis suggests there is no chance of a successful investigation, the resources might be better used on other investigations.” .. " 

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