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Friday, June 12, 2015

Effective Scenario Planning

In McKinsey:   Has been a while since I have worked with this technique, some good ideas and hints to make it useful.   Not the same thing as Business Process Modeling, but some of the suggestions are similar.   I would like to hear of examples where they have been used together and produced real value.

" ... Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning
Scenario planning can broaden the mind but can fall prey to the mind’s inner workings. Here’s how to get more out of planning efforts.Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning. .... 

When scenario planning has worked well, it has proved enormously useful to a wide range of organizations as a tool for making decisions under uncertainty. First popularized by Shell in the early 1970s, the approach should be a natural complement to other ways of developing strategy—especially when executives are as concerned about geopolitical dynamics as many are today. It would probably be more widely used if it hadn’t been such a disappointment to many executives. In fact, 40 percent of those we surveyed in 2013 described it as having little effectiveness.   ... " 

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