Escape from Model Land

 True, caution about modeling is always needed.  Worth a look, on order. 

The limitations of mathematical modeling

A new book demonstrates the danger of the perfect model., by Mike JakemanJanuary 3, 2023

Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do About It,    by Erica Thompson, Basic Books, 2022

The single most famous weather forecast in British history is also one of the worst. In October 1987, a meteorologist working for the British Broadcasting Corporation reassured a concerned viewer that rumors of an approaching hurricane were unfounded. Hours later, 22 people had been killed and billions of pounds of damage done by highly unusual hurricane-force winds. Although the erroneous forecast owed to a lack of data in parts of the North Atlantic, it was the meteorologist, Michael Fish, who became a synonym for flawed prediction models. The work of everyone who uses such mathematical models to produce explanations of how complicated things work is the subject of a new book by Erica Thompson, an academic at the London School of Economics. Her contention is that too many of us have become ensconced in a comfortable but ultimately unhelpful place, which she dubs Model Land.

Thompson believes Model Land is a great place for theorists—economists, climatologists, financiers, political scientists—because models are entirely controllable. Experimenters can set the parameters, run their tests, and write with confidence about their results. There are no messy or uncomplicated factors. “Whole careers can be spent in Model Land,” Thompson writes, “doing difficult and exciting things.” Except these things are not real. Or rather, they do not apply to the real world. It is this delusion that has led governments and businesses that are unquestioning of model results into trouble—and prompted Thompson to write her redress, Escape from Model Land.  ... '