On Quantum Related Risk

 Good overview of the risks to be considered regarding.

Quantum Computing Is for Tomorrow, But Quantum-Related Risk Is Here Today   

By Kevin Townsend on January 03, 2022  in Security Week

Booz Allen Hamilton has analyzed the quantum computing arms race to determine China’s current and future capabilities, and to understand the likely use of China’s cyber capabilities within that race. It concludes, “Risk management must start now.”

The report is really in two halves. The first describes the cybersecurity threat inherent in the quantum arms race, while the second is a primer on the complexities of quantum computing. While this is worth reading, only the cybersecurity threats are relevant to us here.

The two cybersecurity threats

Theft of quantum-relevant research

The background is China’s avowed intention to lead the world in technology and economy. The former is key to the latter; and being first to achieve quantum computing will be a major fillip. For now, China is behind the U.S. and Europe in quantum research but claims it will achieve at least parity by the mid-2020s.

Booz Allen is not convinced this will happen, but believes that China may be the first to achieve limited use cases in quantum computing. The first practical benefits from quantum are likely to come from quantum simulators rather than general purpose quantum computing. These are sometimes called ‘noisy intermediate scale quantum’ (NISQ) computers, so named by John Preskill, a quantum physics researcher at Caltech. 

They will be able to outperform classical computers in areas that include quantum properties – such as drug research. Booz Allen sees this area as providing the earliest quantum computing benefit. In the shorter term, the best quantum simulators will provide the greatest economic benefit.

This is not a cybersecurity threat. But western research in this area will be a primary target for Chinese threat groups seeking to ensure that Chinese capabilities remain at the forefront.

Quantum decryption

The most direct cybersecurity threat will come from quantum-assisted asymmetric decryption – that is, the ability to crack the public key encryption ubiquitous in communications. A quantum asymmetric decryption algorithm was developed by mathematician Peter Shor as long ago as 1994. Although still largely theoretical, it is believed that this algorithm will crack asymmetric encryption at usable speeds as soon as a sufficiently powerful quantum computer is developed. The report suggests this could be achieved as early as 2027, but is more likely to be impossible before 2030

Booz Allen alludes to this threat in three of its five ‘anticipated quantum computing threats from China’: theft of encrypted data with an expectation of future quantum-assisted decryption; adversarial development of quantum-assisted decryption sooner than quantum-resistant encryption can be deployed; and unobservable adversarial development of quantum-assisted decryption. .... '