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Sunday, February 04, 2018

Predicting Perfectly with Machine Learning?

Been in the forecasting business for a long time.   Taught it, used it, made excuses for it.   So always skeptical about perfect forecasting.   It does not exist, except in the most narrow contexts.   Can we do it better, perfectly ... if we can find patterns better using machine learning?  That's what this points to.  But do remember, its only done it once so far.   Yet finding better patterns can be very useful.

A.I. perfectly predicted last year’s Super Bowl score. What happens to betting?   By Dyllan Furness in DigitalTrends

Competitive sports are ultimately numbers games. Whether it’s a gymnast racking up points on a balance beam, a tennis player acing her opponent, or a football team scoring on a last second Hail Mary, all matches are won and lost by numbers. There are upsets, comebacks, and situations when the losing team still seems to outperform the other — but, even then, victory distills into digits.

As such, it’s obvious that many sports lend themselves nicely to the type of mathematical analyses that let keen-eyed statisticians predict outcomes — maybe even exact scores — just by crunching a bunch of numbers. After all, that’s the basis of sports betting, and it’s helped baseball managers craft winning teams on a tight budget just by considering little more than batting average, runs batted in, and stolen bases.   .... " 

But what happens when artificial intelligence algorithms are used to do what they do best — pick out patterns in data that human eyes typically can’t catch? Could these algorithms undermine the “house” and turn sports betting on its head?  ..... " 


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