A Look at Bayes Theorem

In Sciam:   Bayesian thinking is growing.   Here a largely non technical look at its value and limitations.   Nice read.   In general I find methods driven by Bayesian are underused as opposed to over used.     The error of confirmation bias is a long time interest of mine, and in the article:

 " .... Bayesians claim that their methods can help scientists overcome confirmation bias and produce more reliable results, but I have my doubts.

And as I mentioned above, some string and multiverse enthusiasts are embracing Bayesian analysis. Why? Because the enthusiasts are tired of hearing that string and multiverse theories are unfalsifiable and hence unscientific, and Bayes’ theorem allows them to present the theories in a more favorable light. In this case, Bayes’ theorem, far from counteracting confirmation bias, enables it. ... "