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Wednesday, August 11, 2021

Model Predicts COVID Outbreak

No idea how well this actually works in practice, but interesting.   Could be useful for future needs.  Examining the stated methods.

Model Predicts COVID-19 Outbreak Two Weeks Ahead of Time

Florida Atlantic University, Gisele Galoustian, August 6, 2021  via CACM

Researchers at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and Lexis-Nexis Risk Solutions have crafted a long short-term memory (LSTM) deep-learning model that could potentially predict a COVID-19 outbreak two weeks in advance. The team blended driving-mobility data compiled by the Apple Maps application, COVID-19 statistics, and county-level demographics from 531 U.S. counties. Researchers trained the model to record the impact of government responses and age on COVID-19 cases and viral spread, respectively. Results indicated that average daily cases declined as the retiree percentage expanded and increased as the youth percentage grew. FAU's Stella Batalama said the research "has significant applications for effective management of the pandemic and future outbreaks, which has the potential to save lives and keep our economies thriving."  .... 

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