Philip Tetlock and Super Forecasting

Recently covered in the BBC with an introductory article and broadcast.    About the gradual improvement of forecasting and the use of tournaments to drive them.  This topic has been covered here for some time.    Precision forecasting is fundamental for strategic and tactical organization planning. " ... Most intelligence agencies rely on the informed hunches of trained specialists. But there are people from ordinary walks of life who routinely do far better at predicting events than the experts. Tara Isabella Burton meets some of them. ... "