In Datamag: Really some very classic issues about the limitations of long term forecasting in general.
" ... From a statistical analysis standpoint, modeling natural disasters as black swan risk-mitigation scenarios is better than modeling them as events that can be predicted, much less averted, with any degree of actionable precision. For example, earthquakes remain the classic example of these kinds of catastrophes: they can’t be predicted with confidence, but their impact can be mitigated through various proactive measures. That risk profile also describes the threats that regions face from many meteorological events. In such scenarios, impacted regions are often little more than sitting ducks whose best hope is to mitigate the severity of the inevitable effects. ... "
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