Am a big proponent of linking models directly to decisions, and thus make them relevant to real business process. Business is all about uncertain business decisions. One way to do this is to uses Bayesian networks. And the software Bayesia. They have a contract with a previous employer for this purpose. I saw it successfully used there.
They have just released another very accessible presentation on how to use Bayesian Networks. Well worth understanding if you make, define, improve or maintain decisions.
Probabilistic Reasoning Under Uncertainty with Bayesian Networks given by Stefan Conrady of Bayesia ...
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