Fundamental Energy Transitions

But could take more or less based on the fundamental breakthroughs required.

Fundamental Energy Transitions Can Take a Century Electricity’s benefits were obvious, but it still took a lifetime to dominate,    By VACLAV SMIL   in IEEE Spectrum

ONE HUNDRED AND forty years ago, Thomas Edison began generating electricity at two small coal-fired stations, one in London (Holborn Viaduct), the other in New York City (Pearl Street Station). Yet although electricity was clearly the next big thing, it took more than a lifetime to reach most people. Even now, not all parts of the world have easy access to it. Count this slow rollout as one more reminder that fundamental systemic transitions are protracted affairs.

Such transitions tend to follow an S-shaped curve: Growth rates shift from slow to fast, then back to slow again. I will demonstrate this by looking at a few key developments in electricity generation and residential consumption in the United States, which has reliable statistics for all but the earliest two decades of the electric period.   .... '