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Monday, March 21, 2011

Thinking Too Much

In HBS Working Knowledge: Are We Thinking Too Little, or Too Much?  With a retail example.  I agree that it is a context thing, but the recent writing about the value of snap 'blink' decision making is troubling.  It depends on the nature of the decision.

"  ... "And then there's this whole stream of research about ways in which you should think more carefully in more logical ways—creating decision trees that map out 'if you want to do this, then you should do this and not that,' making lists of the pros and cons and making a decision based on which list is longer, and so on." - However, there has been little research that considers the notion that overthinking a decision might actually lead to the wrong outcome. Nor have researchers come up with a model that explores how to determine when we're overthinking a decision—even though logic tells us that there certainly is such a thing ...  '

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