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Monday, November 18, 2013

Changing Statistical Standards

Debating a standard:

Whats in a 95 percent confidence?
Is there something special about a 95 percent probability? Absolutely not; a recent paper referred to it as "seemingly arbitrary." It's simply been arrived at through the consensus of people working in the field. It seems in most fields, people have been willing to accept a situation where, out of every 20 positive results, chances are that one of them is a fluke and will not be reproducible.

But the 95 percent rule doesn't apply to every field. In particle physics, hints of particles with greater than 95 percent certainty come and go all the time—you can get a different answer depending on how much data you have at the time of analysis. So that field has settled on a much higher standard: greater than 99.9999 confidence.    ... " 

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