Long after I worked for NCSS at the Pentagon, but you could start to hear the same questions at the time, when we were predicting events using large scale visualization of plans and events in eastern Europe. Ultimately the same thing.
Pentagon Wants to Predict Events Before They Occur By IEEE Spectrum, October 15, 2021
What if by leveraging today's artificial intelligence (AI) to predict events several days in advance, countries could simply avoid warfare in the first place? That's the type of visionary thinking that is driving U.S. military commanders and senior defense policymakers toward the rapid adoption of AI-enabled situational awareness platforms.
But, it's tempting ask, "What could possibly go wrong?" Leveraging AI-enabled tools to make better decisions is one thing, but using them to predict adversarial actions in order to preempt them is an entirely different ballgame. In addition to raising philosophical questions about free will and inevitability, it is unclear whether any proactive actions taken in response to predicted adversarial behavior might be perceived by the other side as aggressive and end up catalyzing the war we sought to avoid in the first place.
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