All of AI is a kind of forecasting and I like see the comparison of statistical and AI style methods. Some related examples below.
New Post: Updates and Lessons from AI Forecasting
Updates and Lessons from AI Forecasting
by Jacob Steinhardt From Berkely Bair
Cross-posted from Bounded Regret.
Earlier this year, my research group commissioned 6 questions for professional forecasters to predict about AI. Broadly speaking, 2 were on geopolitical aspects of AI and 4 were on future capabilities:
Geopolitical:
How much larger or smaller will the largest Chinese ML experiment be compared to the largest U.S. ML experiment, as measured by amount of compute used?
How much computing power will have been used by the largest non-incumbent (OpenAI, Google, DeepMind, FB, Microsoft), non-Chinese organization? ... ...'
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