Gambler's Fallacy in Business

Working paper from HBS, implications in knowledge management and use. By Gregory M. Barron and Stephen Leider. Not the same thing, but consider some connection to 'confirmation bias', too often seen in consumer testing.

" ... This paper asks whether the way we acquire information, by sequential experience or by simultaneous description, plays a critical role in the emergence of the bias in a binary prediction task (betting on red or black roulette outcomes, for example). The results show that the fallacy only occurs when decision makers experience outcomes over time and not when past outcomes are revealed all at once ... "