Rand Says AI Could Protect the World

Used to have good connections to Rand Corp, but not so in recent years.  Liked some of their work regards design and risk.  Some remarkable statements quoted here.  Will look into how to reconnect.  See full Rand Corp article here.

AI could improve global stability from around 2040, claims US thinktank RAND Corporation
RAND claims AI could enhance strategic stability by improving accuracy in intelligence collection and analysis.

Artificial intelligence has the potential to prevent the end of the world by as soon as 2040, all thanks to its 'nuclear deterrence capabilities', a new RAND Corporation paper has suggested.

"While AI-controlled doomsday machines are considered unlikely, the hazards of artificial intelligence for nuclear security lie instead in its potential to encourage humans to take potentially apocalyptic risks," the RAND study says.  ... "

Think Tanks on Demand

Was just exposed to   Convetit:   " ... ThinkTanks On Demand  .... Custom research in days instead of months ... ... How we work ... From a single scoping discussion with your team .... Convetit Certified Facilitators orchestrate custom engagements yielding compelling results in just 14 days, end to end.  ... " 

Some examples in their blog.

Doug Engelbart Institute

Doug Engelbart Institute:  Brought to my attention, we worked with Doug a number of times through the Institute for the Future.  Doug was the inventor of the computer mouse.  Also of the system Demo.   Lots more at the site.

SNCR Spring Newsletter

Had a long time fellow connection to SNCR.  @SNCR  The Society for New Communications Research.  They also have interesting research going on.  This latest newsletter includes statistics on the changing use of blogs and other social media.  I had mentioned their finding that Linkedin continues to surge strongly as a broadly used social media.

UMass Report on Use of Social Media by Fortune 500

Today attended the yearly presentation of UMass Dartmouth  Prof Nora Barnes, commissioned by SNCR, where I am a senior Fellow.  Lots of fascinating numbers about the use of all common forms of social media by the Fortune 500.  Most interesting this year was the inclusion of Linkedin as a 'regular' social media.   See the UMass site for this and other studies they have done.   (Update): Here are the slides.   (Update) Recording of Webinar.

Fidelity Labs Develops StockCity

Have examined a number of methods that use realistic spaces to represent abstract data. Never found these methods that useful beyond attracting curiosity.  Here another example by Fidelity. With the latest technology:

" ... Fidelity isn't the first company to launch an interactive virtual city app, but it's the first to create one in which the city is built entirely out of stocks. StockCity, developed by Fidelity's research and development think tank Fidelity Labs, is a data visualization app that recreates investors' portfolios as a 3-D city.

StockCity was developed for virtual reality headset Oculus Rift, and it's also compatible with the Google Chrome Web browser. In StockCity, each stock in a portfolio is a skyscraper, and the height of each tall building is determined by its closing stock price. Buildings are clustered together in neighborhoods that represent market sectors.  .... " 

See also, Fidelity Labs.

Forecasting Net Site and Blog on Ebola

George Boretos, Strategy & Marketing Expert
Just posted an update, including the most recent cases for October and a forecast of the expected Ebola deaths and mortality rate, also based on actual data up to Oct 1st 2014. ....  "

See in:
The Forecasting Net is  a non-profit think tank for   both professionals and simple enthusiasts interested in forecasting and future thinking. .... Its purpose is to help increase our visibility of the future by monitoring emerging trends and using scientific forecasting, always with an emphasis on simplicity. Every expression of forecasting, from simple trend following to sophisticated forecasting techniques and software apps, is presented in a straightforward way, in an effort to abridge a scientifically challenging field with down to earth ready to use tools. ... " 

The Reciprocity Advantage

Reading The Reciprocity Advantage: A New Way to Partner for Innovation and Growth.  by Bob Johansen and Karl Ronn.  Nicely done with real life enterprise examples, including IBM, TED, Microsoft, Google Apple Store and more.

I like in particular an outline about how each company partnered and what the partnership exchanged.  Also what assets where involved.   Then  the scaling advantage involved.  I also like the emphasis on experimentation being done to figure out what the real value is and how it will be developed.   Included in that is how 'gameful engagement' can be used to figure out how the partnership will work.   The latter parts of the book provide direct  'How to' steps.  Well done.

" ... Bob Johansen, best-selling author and Distinguished Fellow at IFTF, has partnered with innovation expert Karl Ronn to uncover what they believe will be the biggest innovation opportunity in history in their forthcoming book, The Reciprocity Advantage. Through illustrative examples from leading organizations and an eye to the future, Johansen and Ronn present a four-part model that shows how organizations can give away assets to form partnerships, leading to collaborative experimentation and scalable new business opportunities.  ... 

" ... Johansen and Ronn explain that reciprocity, an old concept, will be reimagined within a future context of connective technologies, generational shifts, and new organizational models to provide a distinct competitive advantage. To win in this world, businesses will need to  (1) uncover their right-of-way, the underutilized resources they already own that they can share with others; (2) find partners who can help them do what they cannot do alone; (3) experiment to learn through cloud-based systems; and (4) scale the results, but only when the business’ reciprocity advantage is desirable, viable, and ownable. If it’s not scalable, it’s not worth doing—and the authors describe technologies that make scaling up faster than ever. .... " 

More and ordering information.   Video.   @Reciprocityadv

Reciprocity Advantage: Innovation and Organization

New book by my two former colleagues: The Reciprocity Advantage.

" ... Bob Johansen, best-selling author and Distinguished Fellow at IFTF, has partnered with innovation expert Karl Ronn to uncover what they believe will be the biggest innovation opportunity in history in their forthcoming book, The Reciprocity Advantage. Through illustrative examples from leading organizations and an eye to the future, Johansen and Ronn present a four-part model that shows how organizations can give away assets to form partnerships, leading to collaborative experimentation and scalable new business opportunities.  ... 

" ... Johansen and Ronn explain that reciprocity, an old concept, will be reimagined within a future context of connective technologies, generational shifts, and new organizational models to provide a distinct competitive advantage. To win in this world, businesses will need to  (1) uncover their right-of-way, the underutilized resources they already own that they can share with others; (2) find partners who can help them do what they cannot do alone; (3) experiment to learn through cloud-based systems; and (4) scale the results, but only when the business’ reciprocity advantage is desirable, viable, and ownable. If it’s not scalable, it’s not worth doing—and the authors describe technologies that make scaling up faster than ever. .... " 

More and pre-order information.   Video.   I plan to read and comment here later.

SNCR Millennial Report Abstracts

SNCR Supported Study ....  (Society of New Consumer Research)

Millennials are leading the social commerce movement. They are more likely than any other group to like/follow/pin companies and brands. They are enticed by coupons and discounts, purchase hair/beauty products and apparel, often using mobile phones and tablets. They are multi-channel shoppers, buying both online and in-store. This cohort is active online in ways that allow them to connect, organize and stay informed and shop.  ...  by Dr. Nora Ganim Barnes, Ph.D., and Ava Lescault, of the Center for Marketing Research at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. Dr. Barnes is a Senior Fellow and Research Co-Chair of the Society for New Communications Research.

Key findings of this study include:
- Facebook is the most popular platform among Millennials when looking to interact with companies/brands online.  Sixty-two percent of respondents currently like at least one brand on Facebook.  Twitter has 23% of respondents following a brand and Pinterest has 11% of Millennials pinning a brand (Nike is the most liked/followed brand). 

- Across all platforms, the top reason why Millennials ‘like/follow/pin’ is to support a brand.  Being unlike any other generation, Millennials pick and choose not only which information they will be exposed to, but also how the information is delivered.  By liking/following/pinning a particular brand they support, Millennials are customizing their exposure to advertising based on their preferences.

- Of those who reported they had never purchased something after liking, following or pinning it online, offering a coupon or discount was the most frequently cited lead conversion tactic for Millennials.  Respondents indicated this is the top motivator leading to a sale.  Similarly, Millennials indicated that companies giving exclusive offers or appealing to their interests were more likely to see an increase in sales as a result of online interaction.

- Relative to users of larger platforms, Pinterest has the highest sales conversion rate.   The user-friendly highly visual design of the website facilitates information search and evaluation of alternatives.  Pinterest makes the transaction process flow with optimal ease for consumers. 

- Facebook, Twitter and Pinterest contribute to both online and in-store purchasing.  Seventy-seven percent of Facebook users, 66% of Twitter users and 63% of Pinterest users are multi-channel shoppers.

Full Study Report  

Need Business Analytics Help?

Need help with business analytics?  Big Data visualization, analysis and mining?   Writing, Speaking, Managing.  Strategy and Tactics.  Over thirty years of experience.  Available.

My updated resume.

Use the contact information at link, or click below for text resume.

Prosperity Institute

The Prosperity Institute, out of the Rottman School at the University of Toronto.  Via  Roger Martin.  I like the interesting geographic focus.  " ... The Lloyd & Delphine Martin Prosperity Institute is the world’s leading think-tank on the role of sub-national factors – location, place and city-regions – in global economic prosperity.We take an integrated view of prosperity, looking beyond economic measures to include the importance of quality of place and the development of people’s creative potential.  ... " 

Complimentary Webinar on Today's Marketing Strategies

Of interest.  by the SNCR which I worked with since its founding.  I plan to attend.

Complimentary Webinar 

CMO 2.0: Marketing Strategies for Dealing with Today’s Marketing Challenges
Tuesday, August 13, 2013 
11:00 AM - 12:00 PM PDT / 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT

CMO 2.0: Marketing Strategies for Dealing with Today’s Marketing Challenges

Join the Society for New Communications Research and Francois Gossieaux, Senior Fellow of the Society for New Communications Research and Co-founder of Human 1.0, and Grant Johnson, Chief Marketing Officer of SDL for a webinar on “CMO 2.0: Marketing Strategies for Dealing with Today’s Marketing Challenges.” In today's social, mobile, big data and cloud world, significantly increasing demands have been placed on marketing. But if you're up for the challenge, there's never been a better time to be in marketing. This informative webinar will examine different challenges that marketing is faced today and will provide advice and tips on how to operate in a networked way. Learn the tools and strategies needed to successful market in today’s digital world.

Solving the Problem of Customer Attacks II

Colleague, correspondent and former co-fellow of mine at  SNCR Paul Gillin has written a book on customer attacks using social media.  I posted about it once before and now continue my look at it:

Attack of the Customers: Why Critics Assault Brands Online and How To Avoid Becoming a Victim  by Paul Gillin with Greg Gianforte.

The first chapter included a detailed example from my former enterprise, Procter & Gamble.  I was especially intrigued because I had been peripherally involved with the early use of social media in the company.  Just how do you address customer attacks? How do you detect them before they start to steamroll?  What are the ideal reactions?

As they state:  "This book is about how to anticipate, prepare for and defend your organization against customer attacks, but more importantly its an argument for building an orgaization that values critics as allies ... " 

The example is about the 2010 rollout of the Pampers Dry Max line.    The new disposable diaper product was mercilessly criticized in the social press as allegedly causing serious diaper rashes in babies that used it.  It was also claimed that the supply chain was already substituting the product well before it was being identified in the marketing.    Thus giving customers no chance to make a clear choice.

Historically P&G, as a large consumer products company, has experienced this kind of rumor explosion before.  But this newest example is beyond the era of the mimeograph machine.  Social media like Facebook and Twitter change the volatility and speed of both exposure and reactions.  The chapter covers the role of social media in the start of the rumor, how it spread, and how P&G reacted.  Gillin makes the point that P&G did not make perfect decisions, but could quickly see what worked versus what did not.   Nicely documented.

Later chapters detail a number of very useful ideas.  In chapter 5, the kinds of attackers you are likely to see are categorized and how they are likely to respond to engagement.  Good examples are given.  In chapter 7, about peer reviews, statistics and the nature of online reviews are outlined. Emphasized is how each peer review system has different means of checking (or not checking) the legitimacy of reviews.  Some of the examples given and the effect of reviews surprised me.

Chapter 9, about preventing an attack and chapter 10, about how to handle an attack, are particularly on point.   These chapters should be read by everyone with a web social presence.  Finally chapter 11 addresses building a attack resistant organization.

The book is very readable, has many recent examples, some of which I knew about and some not. It should be on the shelf of every company of anyone with social web interest.  Any company, especially if you are large, will eventually have to deal with these issues.

See the book's web site at Attackofthecustomers.com

You can read part of the Dry Max chapter in CMO magazine.   And here is the book's Facebook page.

Attack of the Customers

Colleague, correspondent and former co-fellow of mine at  SNCR Paul Gillin has written a book on customer attacks using social media:

Attack of the Customers: Why Critics Assault Brands Online and How To Avoid Becoming a Victim  by Paul Gillin with Greg Gianforte.

I have started to read this excellent book. I discovered that the first chapter included a detailed example from my former enterprise, Procter & Gamble.  I was especially intrigued because I had been peripherally involved with the early use of social media in the company.  Just how do you address customer attacks? How do you detect them before they start to steamroll?  What are the ideal reactions?

As they state:  "This book is about how to anticipate, prepare for and defend your organization against customer attacks, but more importantly its an argument for building an orgaization that values critics as allies ... " 

The example is about the 2010 rollout of the Pampers Dry Max line.    The new disposable diaper product was mercilessly criticized in the social press as allegedly causing serious diaper rashes in babies that used it.  It was also claimed that the supply chain was already substituting the product well before it was being identified in the marketing.    Thus giving customers no chance to make a clear choice.

Historically P&G, as a large consumer products company, has experienced this kind of rumor explosion before.  But this newest example is beyond the era of the mimeograph machine.  Social media like Facebook and Twitter change the volatility and speed of both exposure and reactions.  The chapter covers the role of social media in the start of the rumor, how it spread, and how P&G reacted.  Gillin makes the point that P&G did not make perfect decisions, but could quickly see what worked versus what did not.   Nicely documented.

Books themselves are often too slow a medium to address activities like Twitter.  Gillin has done a good job of extracting excellent examples that deliver key examples of the new world of the customer in social media and how to prepare for attacks online.

I will follow with more commentary about the book as I progress. Nice approach which includes many dissimilar case studies.  So far an excellent read about how a very big company reacted to customer social media.

You can read part of the Dry Max chapter in CMO magazine.   And here is the book's Facebook page.

Attack of the Customers

Colleague, correspondent and former co-fellow of mine at  SNCR Paul Gillin has written a book just brought to my attention.

Attack of the Customers: Why Critics Assault Brands Online and How To Avoid Becoming a Victim  by Paul Gillin with Greg Gianforte

I will write more as a get a chance to review.  Send along any comments you might have,

" ... Customers don't suffer in silence anymore. Today they make their gripes public on the branded websites of the very businesses they attack. Online customer attacks have struck some of America?s biggest brands, and the volume and scope is growing dramatically. You no longer have the luxury of time to respond. An attack can go global in a matter of hours. Attack of the Customers shows how social media can be used to destroy as well as to build. It provides actionable strategies to prepare for and prevent disaster from striking your company. And it shows you how creative engagement can turn critics into raving fans. As this book shows with fascinating real-world examples, customers complain because they care. In these pages, you'll learn how to respond effectively and how you can grow your business in the process. ... " 

Reinventing the Hospital, The Game

From my long time favorite collaborative future consulting group:   Insititute for the Future (IFTF).  A favorite topic, reinventing health care.  I know of a number of related trials underway, lets do more.

It's Official: Over 4,500 Ideas for Reinventing the Hospital
On January 8—9, IFTF ran the 24-hour Future of the Hospital game on Foresight Engine, our collaborative forecasting platform, to help reinvent the community hospital. .... "

Leaders Make the Future

Bob Johansen
IFTF Distinguished Fellow
Institute for the Future
124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor
Palo Alto, CA 94301

Author of Leaders Make the Future, Second Edition  Ten New Leadership Skills for an Uncertain World.

At Procter & Gamble we worked with Institute for the Future starting shortly after its founding.  They often came in to give talks to our executives, and we used their training and brainstorming methods to understand new ideas.  They were also instrumental in introducing to key Silicon Valley companies and entrepreneurs.  Bob Johansen was their CEO during many of the years we used them.  A great experience.   I just reconnected with him, and I note the second edition of his book.. More information and pointers to it above.  I will follow with more on his book.

Nanotechnology Blog and Foresight Institute

Nanodot, the Foresight Institute's informative nanotechnology blog.   We used some of their resources in the early days of nano tech for product development.  Always worth following.

 ... Foresight Institute is a leading think tank and public interest organization focused on transformative future technologies. Founded in 1986, its mission is to discover and promote the upsides, and help avoid the dangers, of nanotechnology, AI, biotech, and similar life-changing developments. Foresight is the primary force pushing for the kind of nanotechnology that will truly transform our future, from medicine to the environment to space settlement. We bring that vision and goal to new audiences, including inspiring young researchers ... "

They are in a fund raiser now.

SNCR Publishes the Social Mind

From SNCR, of which I am a senior fellow:

Professionals Spend 40% of Time Online Interacting in Peer Communities according to the Society for New Communications Research report, "The Social Mind," led by three SNCR Fellows, Vanessa DiMauro, CEO of Leader Networks; Peter Auditore, Principal of Asterias Research, and Donald Bulmer, Vice President of Royal Dutch Shell.

This study explores the interrelationships between online content, global communications, information consumption, social media channels and social networks and changing influence patterns. The Social Mind also identifies key characteristics and insights into the engagement behaviors of influencers and individuals, and how organizations can maximize reach and influence to execute on what we call the new Principals of Engagement in the Millennium. This research is part of a 3-year on-going study on social communications and influence from the New Symbiosis of Professional Networks. The Social Mind research study clearly defines the characteristics and behavior of social media influencers within social media networks that impact the brand, reputation and potentially the sale of products. To purchase a copy of this report, please visit: http://bit.ly/NB6ZIU.

Key findings of The Social Mind Study include:

• Professionals spend 40% of their time online interacting in peer-based communities, closely followed by interactions with friends (31%), and 13% of time interacting with family online.

• 65% participate to engage with a professional community of colleagues and peers via social media networks.80% participate in groups online to help others by sharing information, ideas and experiences.

• 82% exchange information with professional networks and 78% exchange information online with friends, whereas 37% exchange information with “experts.”

• Nearly 80% of respondents participate in online groups to help others by sharing information and experiences; 66% participate in a professional community of colleagues and peers; 41% participate in groups to be seen as someone knowledgeable.

• For seeking information about companies, nearly 50% of respondents said that visiting company websites was most meaningful, 45% read blogs; followed by microblogging (41%), direct email (40%) and information exchange in online groups or forums (41%).

• Educational information was by far the most frequently shared (61%).