Kaiser Fung on the Book ... Risk, by John Adams Which has some interesting thoughts about probabilities describing risk. He begins:
I have been reading the excellent book by John Adams titled Risk (link). This is a geographer's treatment of a subject that is a staple of mathematics, particularly probability math. A mathematical treatment creates objects called probability distributions, which are then taken as complete representations of risk. Adams challenges that construct, bringing a social scientist's sensitivity to the table. In particular, he points out how the mathematics of risk is undermined by measurement issues (i.e. data issues) and statistical issues. He is not invalidating math, just pointing out large cracks that are often ignored.
I will provide a more comprehensive review of the book eventually. I'm very excited by Chapter 5, titled "Measuring Risk", and specifically the example of "traffic black spots". This example is very instructive for anyone who is interested in the practical implications and interpretation of risk measures.
The post got long so I have split it into two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, and it concerns a delicious bit of analysis related to traffic black spots. .... "
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