Further Perils of Corporate Blogging

In the April 7, 08 Businessweek: Busting a Rogue Blogger. About a person blogging anonymously on the 'Troll Tracker' blog, which followed patent trolls, and who turned out to be a Cisco patent attorney. As someone who has blogged both in and outside of a large company for years, this provided some useful insight into the dilemmas of separating the origins of opinions effectively. I had never read the 'troll trackers' blog, but the article says it was opinionated but largely innocuous.

Then there is always the problem of comments. Commenters' opinions can be much more volatile than the bloggers own. Bloggers love comments, because it is proof of engagement with their audience. So there is a tendency to allow more license to commenters than might have given yourself, to indicate your openness to other opinions. It was unclear how closely the comments were moderated. In this case comments included charges of acts that were felonies and even an implied death threat.

This case has ended up in defamation lawsuits against the blogger and Cisco. Including Cisco in the lawsuit shows how relatively little the 'my opinions are my own' disclaimer in blogs like this one mean. Also though Cisco was not involved in their employee's blogging, they do have an official public blog, where they recently included a post that updated their employee blogging policy, worth a read.

Intellipedia and Information Chains

Article about some of the latest developments in Intellipedia. Our early looks at this intelligence community resource, founded in 2006, indicated it was an architecture based on a number of interlinked wikis. Is Google's involvement an indication that this will primarily be driven by search? There have been some interesting criticisms of how such systems can effectively work in government (or in large corporations!) Notable quote: 'We have a command chain, not an information chain'. What are the important qualities of an 'information chain'? How do you make that deep architectural change happen? People engagement is key.

Transparency of Google Privacy

Google is involved so much of the computing work I do there is a natural worry about how private our interactions with Google are. To what extent have I opted in to complex use of my data? A recent conversation with a colleague who asked how I could let Google manage so many of my important computing tasks brought home the issue of privacy. Do we really understand how each element of data can be used, both alone and in concert with other data, both what I provide and what other sources Google may use? Today I discovered in the Google Blog that Google is attempting to be more transparent about the privacy issue. Have not explored what they are saying, but will do so.

On Typography

Garr writes about typography. This brings to mind all sorts of experiments we did during the early days of personal computer typography. We linked early and limited character sets to early desktops, and because there were no printers that could be used to generate results, used plotters to construct originals and copied the plots. We were still engineers, so there was not much art in the output, but it looked like art to us. The broad point the article makes is one I have heard in other domains, once you give amateurs the ability to execute, the overall level of the art drops. Maybe, but I think it's worth it. The article includes some useful links and resources if you would like to raise the bar.

FTC Chair Joins P&G

Robert Weissman speculates furiously about why this happened.

Negroponte on Design

In Presentation Zen, discussion and pointers to some of Nicholas Negroponte's TED presentations.

Community vs Content

See the latest issue of the New Communications review, which is always interesting, in particular

" ... In this issue we are very pleased to bring you the findings from the SNCR Research study, "New Media, New Influencers and Implications for the Public Relations Profession."

In addition we feature a NewCommentary by SNCR Senior Fellow Francois Gossieaux on "community vs. content" and the latest TopTips on blogger relations from the SNCR's Best Practices committee. We also share the results of new research from SNCR Vendor Council member TNS Media Intelligence/Cymfony, and invite you to take our latest survey, the "2008 Online Community Survey," sponsored by Deloitte and conducted by Beeline Labs. And, as always we share the latest news, announcements, updates and upcoming industry events ... "

Web Mashups From Intel

Have now followed up on several versions of this. Promising idea, but also reminiscent of the direction of expert systems and the use of visual systems to program. I much like the idea of using systems like these to explain how they work and check for errors, but I am doubtful you could have managers without considerable technical saavy building their own systems. Worth looking at.

Web Mashups Made Easy
Software being developed at Intel makes it easy for people with no programming experience to combine data from different Web pages ... "

Crowd Sourcing Traffic

Saw Walt Mossberg's video on the new Dash Express navigation system. The system uses uploaded information from other Dash users to provide reports on road and traffic conditions. Other systems, like Garmin's, use traffic data you can subscribe to for an extra fee. A nice example of crowdsourcing. As suggested, this only works if there is a critical mass of other users on the roads you are heading to. Such a network might also have side benefits for truck fleet operators using the same data, decreasing transportation costs. I would guess this is a direction most navigation systems would head towards.

Distributing Judgement Problems

This post is about the problem of how to distribute human judgement problems to the crowd using Amazon's Mechanical Turk program. I have been examining these kinds of problems, and this an interesting take. See Dolores Lab's blog where they are tracking some illustrative examples.

Online Workspace at P&G

Interesting workspace introduced:

" ... BEA Systems, Inc. BEAS, a world leader in enterprise infrastructure software, today announced that Procter & Gamble PG implemented a service-oriented architecture (SOA) powered by BEA technologies.

The SOA powers a new on-line workspace at Procter & Gamble. It has been designed to improve decision making, increase access to knowledge assets, and support decision making ... "

Digital Youth Project at Stanford

Via Jan English-Lueck from FutureCommons:

On April 23, at Stanford, we will be giving our first major public presentation of the outcomes of our research on the "digital youth" project. We are near the end of three years of ethnographic work on 22 different case studies of youth engagement with new media. The MacArthur Foundation and Common Sense Media are organizing an evening event that will include talks and poster presentations from our team members, and a panel or respondents including Tim O'Reilly of O'Reilly Media, Deborah Stipek, dean of the Stanford School of Education, Linda Burch of Common Sense Media, and Kenny Miller from MTV Networks.

Please forward this announcement to folks who you think might be interested. You can see program details and register to attend this event (By April 18) at: www.eventsatcommonsensemedia.org and the project web site ... "

Google Patents Adaptive Technique

Google has patented a technique " ... to decipher which page regions and topics the viewer is interested in based on the viewer's behavior after he's arrived at the page ... ". Normally the choice and placement of ads are done before the user arrives at a page. This looks quite broad on a quick scan, but the implications could be interesting. It comes to mind that with all their data, it would easy to set up a simulation to test all sorts of alternative model constructs. Such predictive models could then be used to optimize and sell given ad arrangements. A potentially powerful idea. Also in Slashdot.

Where is WiFi Going?

Just a year ago I was expecting free ubiquitous WiFi to be available for all my travels. Now I am not so sure. It's long range cousin, WiMax, has also seen some setbacks. My IPhone is always on the lookout for wireless connections, and since many advanced phones have wifi, the demand is growing. Will it be government provided or entrepreneurial or poached from hotspots? Update: And wireless has more security vulnerabilities.

What Makes Shoppers Tick

Good overview article on aspects of understanding shopper behavior, including a description of Kimberly Clark's much publicized virtualization project. Also a number of other approaches and vendors in related spaces.

" ... How many customers walked down an aisle? What products did they look aT? What did they buy? How much time did they spend? Questions like these are becoming increasingly easier for retailers to answer in today's technologically driven world. With the help of innovative, cutting-edge technology systems, companies can delve deeper into the world of in-store metrics and yield more accurate, detailed results. More retailers are taking part in this in-store observation, watching customers while they shop in hopes of determining what works—and what doesn't. Infrared sensors, behavior-capturing video cameras, facial coding analysis and virtual reality simulations are just some of the many technologies retailers are experimenting with today ... ".

Starbucks CRM

Evan Schuman looks at Starbucks’ Revamped CRM Program Clever, But New Web Effort Misses The Mark. He emphasizes the overpriced offerings at Starbucks, and I agree they are, but having been involved with Folgers in the past, merchandising quality, accessibility and convenience do work. Their customers understand this, and a loyalty offering helps justify visits for some consumers. His StoreFrontBacktalk covers retail technology spaces I sometimes miss, good to add to your feed.

Future of Presence

Anthony Townsend brings up the Future of Presence. Large companies are quickly putting in Telepresence centers to both minimize the cost of travel and the ease of reaching out. The expense for such realism remains high and it's implementation unevenly distributed. Fully reaching out still means being there but the arguments are changing. Anthony points to some useful discussions about the subject.

Celebration of Pi

A video celebration of Pi. OK call me a geek.

Amapedia

I just noticed this, the Amapedia is a wiki for owners of products being sold by Amazon. Wikipedia inspired, with an included classification system, called 'collaborative structured tagging' (see below):

"What is Amapedia?
Amapedia is a community of users who share information about the best products they own and love. By submitting information about your favorite products you will be joining a community where people freely share their knowledge and give their opinions and advice. You are able to read about the latest and best products in the market today from the viewpoint of real people who purchased the products you are interested in.

What should I put into an Amapedia article?
Think of an Amapedia article as a product encyclopedia entry that everyone who comes to an Amazon product page can see. Amapedia introduces a new model for jointly constructing a product encyclopedia called "collaborative structured tagging": in addition to writing free-form Wiki text you can also tag a product with what it "is" (e.g. a "Vacuum Cleaner") and what its facts are (e.g. "bagless" and "Manufacturer: Hoover"). Amapedia then uses these structured tags to let you discover, search, and compare related products in novel ways ... "

From Car Shopping: AutoCart

An area of interest for me has been the history and evolution of retail spaces and how these can be utilized by consumer package goods companies. Clarence Saunders of the Piggly Wiggly chain claims to have created the first self-service grocery chain in 1916. Since the 1940s there have been many versions of drive through convenience and pharmas, common today. A company that is trying to take this drive-through experience to a yet more convenient and consolidated level is Autocart, which I have posted about previously. Have also had a conversation with the founders. One particular aspect of this idea was to have a warehouse with many SKUs connected to the drive through, essentially providing a supercenter selection with drive through convenience. Press releases have indicated that their first center would be built in Albuquerque NM in 2006, and a release last year that mentioned Oklahoma City, but I have seen no indication that this came about. If you take a look at their current web site it appears that they are creating a number of variations of the basic idea. A recent paper included in their site says that a Midwestern US retailer will be testing their AutoTram concept in early 2008. Concept is intriguing. Still waiting for the experience of an actual implementation.

Pay-by-Touch Bankrupt

Pay-By-Touch has filed for Bankruptcy, closing all their operations. Their system was one of the best known commercial applications of biometric payment verification. In their case using fingerprints as the biometric. Biggs, Jewel-Osco and Albertsons are well-known retailers that have used their systems since 2006. I participated in one of their tests and was impressed by it's overall reliability. The fact that fingerprints are often associated with law enforcement and privacy issues related to fingerprint data were often brought up. When questioned, very few shoppers had concerns about these issues. I also know of no data losses encurred by PBT. An unfortunate step backward for improved payment verification via biometrics.

Brain Map Project

The Allen Institute for Brain Science in Seattle, Washington, US, is today launching a four-year, $55-million effort to build a three-dimensional map documenting the levels of activity of some 20,000 different genes across the human brain.... "

Forrester's Groundswell

I see that Forrester Groundswell has launched an updated blog, featuring their social technographics ladder and including an intriguing " ... free data tool about consumers around the world and their behavior around social technologies ... ". Have not explored the book or the tool yet, but plan to.

Auto Focus Oven

When I worked with home innovation applications, I recall that the idea of mixing sensors and focused energy was discussed as feasible during a visit to Microsoft's future home. Now Electrolux has come out with an oven that will set it self. Not for sale as yet.

Experts versus the Amateurs

Good piece from Knowledge@Wharton: The Experts vs. the Amateurs: A Tug of War over the Future of Media. Responding to a recent Newsweek article. This is a topic I have mused over for some time. What has happened is that the web has empowered the amateur in new ways. The implications are still being figured out.

Slow Talking

It's the anniversary of the birth of Bob Goulding, partner of the comedy team Bob & Ray. A tribute and link to their funniest sketch, an interview with the president of the Slow Talkers of America.

Reflecting on the Journal-ist Within Us

I was at Barnes & Noble last week looking through their stock of journals. I was attracted to a leather bound volume with graph-paper pages. The graph paper appealed to my engineering dimension. Perhaps I could use the pages to sketch graphs of interesting relationships? It also made me reflect on the number of times I have kept and have been involved with journals of all types. I kept a written journal from an early age, using it to record plans and thoughts through my university years. Rereading these years later has often been revealing. In college I was a very careful and neat note-taker. Decades of typing have changed that.

An early task in a corporate setting, before desktops were common, was to investigate how formal laboratory notebooks could be recorded and 'signed' using a computer. The simple act of signing such a journal turned out to be an impediment that took some time to solve. A light pen was an early solution. Later, as part of a team looking at artificial intelligence applications, we used bound paper journals to record our notes, seeking to formalize intellectual property results.

When the first E-mail systems emerged in the corporation in the late 70s, I started to use electronic messages, or informal notes to myself (that were also accessible to others) to record thoughts and findings so I could refer to them later. Ironically, almost all of these journals, except a few I printed out, are now gone. Lost to changing computing systems. Hand written journals would likely have survived.

Always had a fascination with the journals of others. From Pepys' diary to the insight gleaned from laboratory notebooks that attempt to trace the specifics of experimentation. As archives, as proof and trails of current and past thinking. An internal need to be a primitive journalist.

I started a corporate blog in 2002. In part for myself, and in part to inform others about my research. Technology had improved to make it easy to share and search this journal. Remembering my lost journals of previous years I carefully backed up the journal, which grew to 4100 posts by the time I completed it. It's on a CD-Rom, which should survive, shouldn't it? I still have punch cards from that era, but nothing to read them on. This blog is the surviving echo of that company effort.

After looking at the leather bound journal at Barnes & Noble for some time I put it back on the shelf. Can I ever go back to keeping a paper journal? Are there advantages to doing that?

Kimberly-Clark Leverages Social Network

From the NYTimes: A Meet-Up, Brought to You by Huggies

" ... The Kimberly-Clark Corporation, the maker of Kleenex tissues, is joining forces with Meetup for an initiative sponsored by the company’s baby brands, like Huggies and Pull-Ups. The effort, aimed at mothers of young children, represents Meetup’s first foray into sponsorship. The site is known as a facilitator of offline meetings of computer users who share interests like politics or parenthood ... "

Ten Things About Wikipedia

I have had some interesting conversations about Wikipedia of late. Pete Blackshaw posts some interesting insights about the ubiquitous and often warily viewed online knowledge resource: Ten Things Every Marketer Should Know about Wikipedia.

Arthur C. Clarke

Arthur C. Clarke, technology visionary, who inspired me and many others, is dead at 90.

Analytics Magazine

Informs has a new magazine, called Analytics. You can get an overview here. Worth looking at. It should be noted that the term analytics here is used to describe a broad set of mathematical modeling methods, usually called operations research, not the narrower use of the term to describe site traffic analysis.

How Coca-Cola Drives Innovation in Consumer Goods

Received, report of a seminar of interest, Thursday, March 20, 2008
12:00 p.m. ET, More information and register.

" ... join Consumer Goods Technology and Oracle for an educational Web seminar this Thursday featuring a panel of industry veterans including Coca-Cola Co. and Cheryl Perkins, Founder and President, Innovation Edge (and former Kimberly-Clark CIO) , during this live Web seminar which will provide you with the blueprint for success regarding innovation in consumer goods.

Consumer goods companies need to improve their innovation results in order to achieve sustainable growth in an environment dominated by retail consolidation, consumer empowerment, regulatory constraints and complex supply chains. The objective is to compress innovation cycle times, reduce costs, lower risks and increase sales and margins of new products – at the same time ... "

Cloud Computing and Marketing

Nicholas Carr talks about the implications of cloud computing for the future of online marketing in an article he wrote for AdAge Digital. Worth thinking about, but regardless of how Internet capabilities and computing services are provided, the wants of the consumer will be the same.

Unilever is Digital Marketer of the Year

In Advertising Age: " ... Unilever has been named Digital Marketer of the Year by Advertising Age, which cited its "Evolution" viral video on behalf of Dove, and a short-form video campaign on behalf of anti-antiperspirant Degree that tied into the TV drama "24." The campaigns all combined online and traditional elements. As Unilever's North American media director Rob Master said, "Digital is far from done in isolation ... " . The Dove Evolution video is the effective, and some say hypocritical piece of viral video that criticizes cosmetics. Hypocritical based on other Unilever digital efforts.

Corporate Social Technology

Forrester's Josh Bernoff on Corporate Social Technology Strategy.

Google Cities in 3D

This makes it easier for communities to add 3D City data to Google Earth, and makes it cheaper for Google to implement 3D city-scapes. The idea is a good one and could provide means for medium size cities to market themselves. The cost to gather the data and maintain it could be high but could also lead to virtualized urban environments for more general virtual applications. I assume that a city would copyright it's virtual form? From the Google Earth Blog:

" ... I'm pleased to announce that we've just launched the Google Cities in 3D Program, which invites cities, towns, and other local governments to share their 3D data with the public by adding a model of their city to Google Earth. With this new program we've made it simple for local governments to share their data with us and be included in the 3D Buildings layer of Google Earth.

A 3D model of a city is extremely useful to potential visitors, developers, investors, preservationists, property owners, businesses, public officials, and many other groups. By establishing a 3D representation of a city on Google Earth, local governments can more effectively engage the public and boost tourism by enabling prospective visitors to plan their visit in advance... "

Second Life Fatigue

After spending some time witnessing the goings on in Second Life, especially watching some of the construction going on in corporate places like IBM, I now sense a certain weariness setting in. Is it becoming sometimes clever visual chat? A recent visit found (again) not much going on. The avatars fading. The financial structures also looking shaky, the World Stock Exchange closed temporarily. New policies muddy the realities vs virtual comparison.

When I published this in another forum I got complaints that said that SL is not about the corporation. It's more about personal, virtual creativity. There is much activity, just not on the corporate campus. I do like the grand experiment underway, but the idea that it is also about the world of commerce seems to be fading.

Security of Contactless Cards

Contactless cards in the form of NFC technologies are now in broad test in the US. Evan Schuman writes about a recent dustup about security issues of these technologies.

Online Communities Survey

There’s a lot of buzz about online communities, but how much business value are they providing – and how are organizations measuring success?

Jen McClure of SNCR writes:

" If you're involved in managing online communities for your organization, we invite you to participate in the 2008 Online Community Effectiveness Study, sponsored by Deloitte, the Society for New Communications Research and Beeline Labs. To take the online survey, go to: http://www.communityeffectiveness.com.

The survey takes only about six minutes. The purpose of the study is to assess the effectiveness of online communities and learn how organizations are measuring the success and progress of their online communities.

All participants who complete the survey will receive a copy of the executive summary of the study's findings and a special discount to attend the Society's annual conference, New Communications Forum, where the findings will be shared in a special presentation ... "

Of Many Minds

Good overview article on the increasing use of brain scanning, and what it may mean, in and outside of medicine.

Readability Indices

Readability indexes, which are ways to calulate the grade-level of a piece of text, have been around for a long time. A teacher in junior high suggested we compute them for articles we had written for a class as an experiment. Since they are now easy to compute, based on measures like syllables in a word and words in a sentence, there are a number of packages that deliver them. Are they really meaningful? A WSJ article discusses the implications. This article also introduced me to the numbers guy blog in the WSJ.

RFID to Improve Inventory Accuracy

A new study from the the University of Arkansas about the value of backroom RFID. Have been previously involved in their studies of out-of-stock improvements. Measurement improvements of this type can reduce costs and ordering efficiency. These are the kinds of improvements are widely being sought via improvements in data transparency via non-item RFID tagging.

Wal-Mart-Commissioned Study Shows RFID Improves Store Inventory Accuracy

University of Arkansas researchers found that RFID can reduce the degree of understated perpetual inventory by 13 percent, thereby helping retailers to lower their costs ... "

Intellectual Property and Magic

Via Steve King, he writes:

" ... There is a really interesting research paper on IP law ... called Secrets Revealed: How Magicians Protect
IP Without Laws. ... According to the paper, magic occupies an "IP negative space" where IP laws offer little protection. Because of this, the magic industry has developed a broad range of cooperative community norms to provide IP protection for those that invent tricks - and punishment for those that abuse magic IP.

While the article is about IP, the paper is an excellent case study on industry cooperation. It also has an interesting description of innovation in the magic industry ... "

Mechanical Computers

Back in my Industrial Engineering days I took a course in analog computing. That must have been one of the last years that the course was taught. I was impressed with the technology, but soon forgot the whole idea. It was followed with easy access to timesharing, then desktops, then laptops and maybe soon cloud computing. The idea of mechanical computing, not the same thing as analog computing, but with some useful relationships, is being re-examined and worth understanding.

Makeover at HP Labs

Have been at HP Labs a number of times, have always been impressed by their researchers, but in recent years the IP paperwork has increasingly gotten in the way:

" ... HP is tightening up its research and development division. Under a new plan, HP Labs will dramatically scale back the number of projects its researchers focus on in order to put more effort into larger projects more likely to yield profitable products. Among three new initiatives with HP Labs, the Open Innovation Office will work to strengthen ties with outside government, academic and commercial entities ... "

P&G Sweden Sacks Worker Over Public Blog

First time I have have ever seen this kind of thing. The article is confusing, but the implication is that bloggers need to be careful about their definition of humor and perceived external behavior. In multiple international venues, under varying legal contexts!

IPhone Early Design Exposure

As a present to myself for my retirement I bought an Iphone. I had been a user of a corporate issued Blackberry for about four years, so this was a pretty new experience. I had also recently heard a Google exec speak very glowingly about how revolutionary the IPhone was.

So far my experience has been mixed. I am not an Itunes user, and only sometimes listen to podcasts, so that aspect is not big for me. The 'real' browser is good and that has been convenient, but I am not always in places that provide wi-fi, and the AT&T Edge network is abysmally slow, so that has been a disappointment.

Regards interface, I was surprised that there were inconsistencies. Delete is not always done the same way, for example. I am not used to touch interfaces, so have found myself selecting and even deleting things that I did not plan to. Compared to the BBerry, the qwerty typing interface is error-prone and slow, annoying if you answer many messages with more than a line or two.

The physical design of the phone itself does look a little 50s. Was it really inspired by Braun? Perhaps, based on some of the pics I have seen. I like the minimal number of buttons, but I think a more modern and striking design could have been used. And again, I think consistency of usability design could have been thought through more carefully.

I see that the Iphone 2.0 interface will be addressing some of these problems, but the very simplest issues of synchronizing your contacts and calendars between laptop and mobile are problematic. I figured out ways to make these work, but it took too much effort. Though I am no longer within a large enterprise, there are security and syncing issues for that context as well.

Still getting used to it. If you have plans to get one, suggest you play with a friend's before jumping in.

Big Mobile Coupon Test

In today's AdAge, good example of using a mobile phone based coupon repository. Being tested by several large consumer goods coupons and Kroger, using Kroger's loyalty system. The vendor is cellfire, where you can get a better idea of their method:

"Package-Goods Giants Roll Out Mobile Coupons
P&G, Clorox, Del Monte, K-C, General Mills Team With Kroger to Try to Make Promotions Relevant to Younger Consumers

SAN FRANCISCO (Adage.com) -- Five top package-goods manufacturers are using mobile phones in an effort to revive the art of coupon redemption.

Procter & Gamble, Clorox, Del Monte, General Mills and Kimberly-Clark are teaming with retail giant Kroger for what will almost certainly be the biggest test of wireless coupons to date and perhaps even one of the most significant ventures into mobile marketing in the U.S. The aim is to reach the generation between 25 and 34 who are likely to have growing families in need of baby, home-cleaning and household products, but who don't read a lot of newspapers.

"Promotions still work -- the problem is finding where we need to talk to them in a relevant way," said Irma Tavilian, baby-care and childcare consumer promotional marketing team leader at Kimberly-Clark. "The whole industry is trying to figure out these channels." Roger Entner, senior VP-communications sector at IAG Research, went so far as to predict "Mobile couponing is the future -- hands down." Besides avoiding the fuss and muss of cutting out coupons, he said, mobile coupons are never forgotten at home ... "

Solar Power Singularity

Back as early as the energy crunch of the 70s I have been reading about when various alternative energy technologies would be economically feasible to replace fossil fuel. These levels have always been exceeded, without much happening in alternatives. I remember $50 a barrel in particular as a holy grail level that would cause all sorts of infrastructure to change. Surprise, not much has happened. Now TCS suggests that the solar energy singularity is at hand.

Presenting Your Phone for Payment

There are now a number of large tests of NFC (Near Field Communication) now underway. The most interesting application of this technology is the capability of using cell phones for payment. A chip is placed in a phone, the vendor has a reader to capture the needed data, some validation is performed. The cellphone as a wallet. Evan Schuman writes about the underlying training issues. I have never presented my phone for payment anywhere, so I can understand the confusion that could result. But I still remember when presenting a credit card to a vendor was viewed with skepticism. It's only a matter of time.

Big Switch

I finished Nicholas Carr's The Big Switch, Rewiring the World, From Edision to Google. Overall a good read. He starts with an interesting technology history lesson that he later uses to make a point about where he believes all these computing resources are migrating. I like historical examples and his current-day tales, but the connection is tenuous. I also have his Roughtype Blog on my feed, so I was ready for some of his arguments, somewhat restated here, that there are some dangers looming from some of the big players out there, you know who they are. His writing makes you think, but some of his points are labored. Why shouldn't I be just as worried about all the hardware be in central places as I should be about new players such as Google providing all the software? He also seems to be very worried that Google's founders are interested in AI. If they were not, others would be. Carr is a journalist, not a computer scientist, so sometimes his focus is on what is in the press or who he has talked to lately rather than what is really relevant. Overall argument is that the world is being re-wired as we speak, in somewhat unexpected ways, and there will be some side-effects we will need to prepare for. Agree. He has some interesting focus points here. The book is non-technical but it will be most interesting to those involved in high tech. See also the book's web site, some excerpts are there to get a flavor for the book.

Law and Virtual Environments

A discussion of how corporate counsel should think about virtual environments like Second Life. I agree that there are lots of issues lurking there, especially when you start doing marketing and commerce.

Coffee Makers

Alex Pang over at IFTF's Future Now blog, where I used to contribute, writes about the Clover 1S Coffee maker, quoting a recent Slate article. I used to work in P&G's coffee division, mostly dealing with how coffee blends are created. Even learned to do formal coffee tasting. For a while P&G even made single dosage coffee machine, not sure if they still do. Alex muses over if an $11,000 coffee machine is decadence or pure technological progress. He thinks the latter, I agree, though I think you could get the 80 for 20 here with a little training and some off-the-shelf, much cheaper machines.

AARP Digital Community

The AARP Digital Community, which I had the chance to test in early beta, is now up and running. Here is a tour. A community FAQ, and community help group. AARP has a large existing membership that it hopes to turn into a social community. Good first step. An opportunity indeed.

The Social Graph

Dion Hinchcliffe on The Social Graph: Issues and Strategies in 2008. Instructive overview piece on the subject.

CSIS Forecast Maps

Via Steve King: The Center for Strategic and International Studies has released a forecast map. Graphically reminiscent of transit maps.

New Wal-Mart Blog

A new Wal-Mart Blog, called Check Out, is described in the NY Times. The blog is written by WM buyers and and is described as particularly candid. I did a quick scan of recent posts, and it is refreshingly open. There are nine authors covering a number of product categories. They are getting a small number of moderated comments. This is the kind of blog that works, but is rarely done by large companies outside the technology world.

LinkedIn vs Facebook

A good Computerworld article compares Linkedin and Facebook for six business problems. Its clear that LinkedIn looks more professional in it's typical application, but which addresses typical business networking problems better? Along the way you get an introduction to the serious capabilities of each. LinkedIn has also announced API capabilities that could make it more flexible. Also, more on the integration of third party applications.

Application Design

Jakob Nielsen's post: Top Ten Design Mistakes came to my attention. A good read. His fairly well known previous article summarizes: " ... To design an easy-to-use interface, pay attention to what users do, not what they say. Self-reported claims are unreliable, as are user speculations about future behavior ... ". I just got an IPhone and am now using it as my primary phone. Although it has a very interesting interface, there are a number of inconsistencies in how you do things. Have now only used it for a few days, and am still learning.

Be Identified

Now that I am responsible for my own infrastructure I am taking more notice of the risk of using specific methods. I was quite surprised, after changing my hardware, to start being challenged by Google's blogger. Many of you have probably seen the challenge, where you have to read a distorted set of letters, to prove you are not a sim, This is called a captcha. Last night this happened several times in a row. The letters I had to read were so distorted I had to try several times. I felt somewhat put off by this. Am I a machine or human? Am I depending too much on Google's usually excellent services?

Functional Chocolates

In Confectionary News, Functional Chocolates, the term was new to me. Chocolate treats could be used for some sort of specific pick-me-up or even over the counter claim seems to be a very big idea and is spreading.

Done

Well I am finally done, retired, complete and finished with the big soap company. This marks my thirtieth year. Although I only worked there for 27 years. I spent a few years working a start-up, which is yet another story.

I started as part of the analytics and graphics group, first primarily doing applications of optimization for the supply chain. This was in the early days of being able to readily visualize results interactively on a computer. It turned out to be a very effective way to make things clearly understandable. So we implemented things like visualized woodland harvesting plans, supply network options and simulation results. Simulate, optimize and visualize the results, that worked well.

The next big chunk of work had to do with what in the late 80s was very optimistically called 'artificial intelligence'. What we mostly implemented was called 'expert systems'. We collaborated with several of the big players then, notably Teknowledge. We had a dozen or so folks in our team, and built a number of systems to do things like coffee blending, machine analysis and selection and even stain analysis. There were a number of successes, some very lucrative, but we never matched the speed or expectation of management. So after a few years success was declared and the group disbanded. Too soon I think, there were many opportunities we had in the hopper that could have prevailed.

In the early 90s, well before Mash-ups and Google maps, we implemented systems that used Geographical Information Systems (GIS) as front-ends to help management to make difficult choices whose results would impact the design of corporate systems. Really a mix of simple optimization and simulation, with output and input taken from GIS interfaces

Then we looked at the idea of immersive innovation. This started with skunk works home and store centers that built contexts for understanding and engagement with consumers and other organizations. Despite all the cynical IBM ads, these can result in some powerful engagement dynamics.

In the last few years I have been involved in the practical application of Web 2.0 capabilities to track the application and implementation of emergent technologies using blogs. What I did during this time was to track everything I did using an internal blog, which I left behind as an archive when I retired. This is a useful example of knowledge management, a means to easily capture a stream of knowledge, and allow you to stream it back as needed later on. The blog was read by thousands a week internally, and led to lots of consulting relationships.

Now on to new challenges.

L'Oreal Sponsors Greenies in Second Life

L'Oreal has become a sponsor of the Greenies alien land in Second Life, much more here. I don't see the useful connection, except that they are giving away virtual L'Oreal product, but worth examining.

The Limits of Quantum Computing

In the March Sciam, an article "The Limits of Quantum Computing", a very good overview of the idea of quantum computing and it's limitations. Though the Sciam article is not onine, there is a draft by Scott Aaronson available. Introduction to the complexity of problems realm and how it relates to real-world problems. Though this is important stuff, it is technical and only people with a strong topical interest in math should venture in. The Wpedia also covers the topic well. The published Sciam article does it's best to dumb down the topic with pictures. Where exactly has the Scientific American gone? Read it since the 60s, and now it has abandoned anything other than pop-sci masquerading as depth.

Aaronson is an MIT Prof well known for publishing in this area. Notable is his complexity zoo site. And his blog. The article is also interestingly described and commented on in Slashdot.

Beyond AI

Just brought to my attention: Beyond AI: Creating the Conscience of the Machine, by J. Storrs Hall. AI topics are always of interest. According to the overview, a strong view of ethics issues.

Hitachi's RFID Powder

Could developments like Hitachi's RFID powder be used to make product counterfeiting much more difficult? It's a big issue in consumer goods. At what cost?

Kurzweil Predicts Exponential Change

These kinds of predicted advances have implications beyond game-playing. Games are very analogous to simulations, which can be used to do new kinds of predictive analytics. Games are also interactive, which also predicts new ways to integrate simulations with live people. Of course it is not just about hardware, its above divining software that will efficiently solve the problem.

" ... As microprocessors are progressively able to perform more calculations for less money, we can expect to see the price-to-performance ratio of computers improve a billionfold over the next 25 years, predicted Ray Kurzeil during his keynote speech at the Game Developers Conference. Kurzweil says that modern electronics are so powerful that the other fields that rely on them will be subject to advancements at the same rate as the chips that power them, and that software will ultimately become the limiting factor. "You can't ignore the exponential projections," Kurzweil says. "If you're programming a game or any type of information-based technology two or three years from now, the world's going to be completely different." Kurzweil says that previously unrelated fields will essentially become information technology fields due to the growth in the power of computer devices. For example, he says artificial red blood cells could eventually duplicate the work of the real thing, only 1,000 more efficiently. "Biology is very capable and intricate and clever," Kurzweil says, "but it's also very suboptimal, compared to what we ultimately can build with information technology and nanotechnology." ... "

Wozniak Again

Here is a new interview in Knowledge@Wharton with Steve Wozniak, co-founder of Apple. Previously I reviewed his quirky autobiographical book: iWoz. Wozniak was the technical brains of Apple while and after he worked at HP. Steve Jobs became the visionary marketing partner. Since then Wozniak has sponsored a number of interesting but until now unsuccessful start-ups.

Bloggers and Influence

Joseph Carrabis, who I have briefly mentioned here, writes about Bloggers, Influence and Your Brand. He has some interesting takes on the nature of blogger types and how they influence.

Viewing Talent Needs as a Supply Chain

An interesting view of talent needs, from Knowledge@Wharton, look at them as a supply chain:

" ... This is a fundamentally different paradigm in terms of thinking about talent," according to Cappelli, the author of a book coming out in April titled, Talent on Demand: Managing Talent in an Age of Uncertainty. His theory, he suggests, addresses a major complaint about the field of human resources -- that it is "touchy-feely, squishy stuff with little applicability to business problems. HR practices have typically been about meeting individuals' needs, figuring out what psychological profile they fit and what should be done to help them grow and advance. But if you're an employer who is worried about issues like the finances of the company, you would like HR to think about personnel from the perspective of money and costs, and what happens if you don't have the right people in place to do the necessary jobs." .... "

Is the Tipping Point Toast?

Good Fast Company article on the 'Tipping Point' controversy that I had missed. We spoke to Watts at a Sante Fe Institute meeting some years ago and he expressed skepticism about direct application of his methods to corporate marketing.

Wal-Mart Learns from Mobile

Evan Schuman writes about Wal-Mart's learnings in mobile advertising.

Goat Commerce on a Cell Phone

Recently seen . A novel example of how mobile commerce is being used effectively in the third world. In particular the payment aspect of this example. Via Khurram Hamid. Will we eventually have cell phones replace cards, which have now been around commonly since the 70s. ? Will there be an intermediate phase with touchless cards? Evan Schuman discusess a bit of the psychology of the phenomenon. I am more optimistic that the transition will be made soon.

Chandler Lost

Mitch Kapor's Chandler project here. The plug has finally been pulled. It may be released in open source form. Scott Rosenberg's 2007 book: Dreaming in Code, was in part about Chandler's development. Looked at this fairly closely as a possible generalized personal information management system, but it's delay led to other approaches. The book is a good read for the those interested in the mix of sociology and coding.

Scanning Images of Familiar Objects

A broad step forward in understanding how patterns of the brain change during thought:

Carnegie Mellon Study Identifies Where Thoughts Of Familiar Objects Occur Inside the Human Brain
A team of Carnegie Mellon University computer scientists and cognitive neuroscientists, combining methods of machine learning and brain imaging, have found a way to identify where people's thoughts and perceptions of familiar objects originate in the brain by identifying the patterns of brain activity associated with the objects. An article in the Jan. 2 issue of PLoS One discusses this new method ... A dozen study participants enveloped in an MRI scanner were shown line drawings of 10 different objects - five tools and five dwellings -one at a time and asked to think about their properties. Just and Mitchell's method was able to accurately determine which of the 10 drawings a participant was viewing based on their characteristic whole-brain neural activation patterns. To make the task more challenging for themselves, the researchers excluded information in the brain's visual cortex, where raw visual information is available, and focused more on the "thinking" parts of the brain .. "

OR Drives Success at Procter & Gamble

Was just sent this BNet article about how Operations Research (OR) is used at P&G. Very good overview. When I joined P&G in 1977 this is what I did for the first 15 years or so.

Launching Old Spice Pro Strength

Below, an item I was sent on the launch of Old Spice Pro-Strength. You may have seen part of the launch on the SuperBowl. See their new site, which links you to a number of media examples. A press release. Check it out. I see that some of the videos are already on Youtube. I must not be the target of this.

"Let's Get Clinical: Launching Old Spice Pro-Strength
Old Spice is launching Pro-Strength Antiperspirant behind an innovative Media plan that heavily leverages Branded Entertainment and Interactive Media.

Old Spice has partnered with Will Ferrell and Newline Cinema's to co-market Old Spice Pro-Strength and the Semi-Pro. Old Spice has seen strong results in the past with movie tie-ins including the 2006 release of Talladega Nights. Old Spice also has a strong history of leadership within emerging digital channels including iMedia, Broadband, and Gaming. With the Pro-Strength campaign, Old Spice is scaling these efforts to new heights behind one of P&G's largest online media spends...."

Attention Markets in the Classroom

You have seen it increasingly of late. People in a meeting with laptops open, typing away. Well, are they fully participating in the meeting or not? Old-school, I try to be polite and lower my screen to at least half-mast. This has become a big issue in higher ed. In fact at the U of Pa I talked to a person involved with Wharton's new room designs who said initially their classrooms were designed specifically to not include wireless capability, to prevent distraction, but he admitted they were reconsidering the approach. Here is a rather heavy-handed response, called Synchroneyes, in a higher ed blog. Is attention at work or school just a market?

Shel Israel Interviews Michael Dell About Blogs

Shel Israel interviews Michael Dell, mostly about blogging in New Communications Review, as part of their SAP Global Survey on Social Media.

Human Level AI by 2029

In the BBC: Machines will achieve human-level artificial intelligence by 2029, a leading US inventor has predicted. At the right, artists impression of how nanomachines will roam the body curing disease. The most optimistic pundit on this topic, Ray Kurzweil, is interviewed in 2005.

Small Business Labs

Steve King is a longtime correspondent from IFTF and Thingmagic. He gave an excellent talk at our recent Ecommerce workshop. Some time ago he sent me an address of his Small Biz Labs blog: Tracking the Future of Small Business. I did not follow it closely then, but in re-examination its really a general personal blog, with applications to technology of interest to all size companies.

GS1 on Mobile Commerce

I have pointed to earlier drafts of this report, it is now available in final form:Mobile Commerce: challenges and opportunities. GS1 is an important global standards body for all variants of wireless capabilities including RFID and cell communications. P&G is on GS1's global board. Contributed to several drafts. Joe Horwood of GS1writes that the paper will be continually updated. If you have any interest in mobile commerce, it's worth reading.

Future of Small Business

Steve King writes, and passes along a link to an interesting article I am now reading:

We just released the 3rd edition of the Future of Small Business report. It is called The New Artisan Economy. This was a joint effort by IFTF, Intuit and Emergent Research (my firm). The report and related materials are at: www.intuit.com/futureofsmallbusiness. The report applies relevant IFTF forecasts and analysis to the small business sector. Because of this, those familar with IFTF and their forecasts will recognize much of the work. It also includes data and insights gleened from Intuit's extensive market research on the small business sector.

Thanks to co-author Anthony Townsend and contributors Alex Pang and David Pescovitz -whose work on the future of manufacturing we proudly plagiarized.

Beating Heart Haptics

Yury Gitman writes via Future Commons:

I thought you'd be interested in hearing about a project I just updated. Back in 2005 I posted here about a high-tech product/art piece I was hand-making and selling. It was/is called My Beating Heart. In short, it's a heart-shaped pillow with a haptic (physical) heartbeat. The thing that makes it novel and unique is that there's a custom made micro inside that I've programmed to algorithmically model the human heart in a deep meditative state. As people hug the heart, their own hearts begin to sync with My Beating Heart's rhythm and it helps them relax and nap ... My Beating Heart ... more about the design and technology.

Braun Designs Inspired Apple

From Gizmodo and The Guardian. I saw a Braun design symposium a few years ago, and read of Braun's design competitions, very impressive.

" ... Apple has been inspired by design from Braun and Braun's design principles established back in the late 1950s and 1960s. The iPhone is Apple’s latest example to reveal similarities with a Braun product -- the calculator graphics of the iPhone mirrors the design of Braun’s calculators almost identically.

This is a great example of how Braun has been at the forefront of innovation since the middle of the last century. Braun has implemented a holistic innovation concept where superior design plays a fundamental role in building the brand and creating a culture of brand excellence. The Braun principle of "less but better design" is reflected in Apple designer, Jonathan Ive’s passion for "simplicity" and "honest design." ... '

Brain Scanning the SuperBowl

Short Ad Age video on brain-scanning Superbowl Ads. Can be downloaded as a podcast. You may need to register, and after a short while they cease being free. This has now been done for at least three years. Details on the work done by Sands Research.

The results do not match well with other ad popularity polls, for example the much praised Tide to Go commercial got low brain activity, though no one knows exactly what this means. Attention perhaps, but will it lead to remembering or buying the item when shopping? The video also gets some terminology wrong, calling it neuroeconomics, which is related to but not the same as neuromarketing. These techniques have started to receive mainstream interest, from Nielsen for example. I am convinced that there will be substantial results from these and related methods.

Update: For something new, see twitter ratings of the ads.

War Games and AI

I just watched the 1983 film War Games. I closely follow the history of computing, and this is a fun watch to see how much things have changed since 25 years ago. This was one of the first films that positioned AI and security in a generally plausible way. In the realm of that day it was difficult for the average person to search for knowledge to perform a task. At that time the Internet did exist, I had used it as part of the Darpanet. The Web did not, and a high school student would have had a very hard time getting the knowledge they needed.

So what has happened? Now it is possible to search very broadly and very quickly. Defense systems are on separate networks and likely much more secure. Likely. Some of the suggestions of the interaction of real world and simulated systems are impressive for the time, though the security gaps are not credible.

Shortly after I first saw the film I was part of a corporate AI team that sought to implement some of the Artificial intelligence implied by the film. Large scale strategic gaming directed and optimized by computing systems. Taking simple games like checkers and chess and scaling them up to real interactions that include choice making, simulations and fallible people. The promise was a big one. Systems that could run large portions of corporations in a 'lights off' mode. Making product fast, cheaper, better.

Although there were lots of small victories that resulted from these corporate efforts, the big win never happened. What worked best were very narrow applications of AI to corporate process. Difficult too was the attempt to build intelligence that could be readily re-applicable. Bigger wins made it necessary to link many systems, many choices and many indeterminate interactions.

You can readily construct individual rules, simulations, pattern tasks and computations. You can string them together in a program or declare them as a set of knowledge statements. But eventually this falls apart. The sum of these knowledge nuggets becomes less useful in aggregate without some combining structure. Though there is AI theory that covers this, its hard to implement in real systems.

So it's not easy to build generalized intelligence systems. It was also seen early on that it was not easy to insert people in the loop to interact with an intelligent system. More recently, linking decision makers with very complex simulations has shown promise. The AI factor is still not readily available in a generalized way. Will it happen? I think so, but there is still some some fundamental first principle work to do, perhaps another 25 years.

I would love to see examples of how other corporate attempts at the broad implementations of AI succeeded or not. And in particular, what were the key barriers to this kind of work? Part of it is a better understanding of how to integrate low level intelligence tasks.

The film, despite it's age, covers some interesting space and is worth a watch. The final resolution, though, is laughable.

Nielsen Buys into Neuromarketing

It's about using biometrics to determine the reaction of people to stimuli. The best known examples are of the 'lie detector' kind, though these stumble on various interpretations of truth. What has seen the most interest of late are brain-scans that show patterns of brain blood flow. They have been used to evaluate Superbowl commercials and compare product designs. Much skepticism still exists, and many companies are spooked by PR fallout from methods that are perceived as too invasive. Much experimentation underway:

In the Neuromarketing Blog:

" ... Has neuromarketing arrived? If not, it has reached a new plateau of credibility as the privately held Nielsen Company has invested in NeuroFocus, a firm that uses brainwave, eye-tracking and skin conductance measurements to measure consumer reactions to ads and products. Nielsen, best known for its television viewership ratings, has a diverse portfolio of businesses involved in media and marketing ... "

Press release.

3D Virtual Design for the Novice

3-D Design for the Masses
Dryad's new user interface aims to make it easier for novices to create realistic objects for virtual worlds. A very simple idea that makes it easy to construct 3D objects by selecting them and then modifying them. Its all about trees right now, but you could see where this could go. Their site.

Kleenex, Anthropology and New Branding

An anthropologist favorably analyzes the Kleenex 'Let it Out' ad campaign. See the Let it Out website. The site includes a blog, and some consumer generated media.

Adapting to Consumer-Controlled Surveillance

Clickz article by Blackshaw that touches some interesting points.

Google Analytics Install

I continue to make some changes to this blog. Yesterday I added Google Analytics functionality. Was fairly easy. Most of the problems I encountered existed on the Blogger side. Along the way I lost some confidence in Google products. I tried to add it as a Java/HTML block, but somehow the save would not work. So I edited it into the HTML code. It seems to be recording hits to the blog now. Along the way I discovered EpikOne, a company that does consulting and training for GA, and also has a useful scanner that will check out your site to see if GA has been properly installed. Its also useful to go to the Google Analytics Blog where the latest in tools and updates can be found. I have used GA for over a year now on internal sites and it works well.

Ford Tags Tools

This week Ford has announced a new capability for truck fleets it sells to contractors. In collaboration with DeWalt tools, the tools will be tagged with an RFID tag. The truck will then be able to detect if all the tools are in place. Results is fewer lost tools. Also useful for service applications where the dispatched truck needs to have some subset of tools available for a job. Results in fewer wasted trips. Thingmagic, who also works with us, is providing the tagging solutions for this. Clever use of the technology, making systems aware of their contexts. Free cup of coffee for an internal use of this idea Here is their brochure of the solution. Via Steve King. More details on the announcement, which further details the truck as an office concept.

Virtual China

The Institute for the Future, who we have worked with since the late 70s has a blog called Virtual China.

" ... Virtual China is an exploration of virtual experiences and environments in and about China. The topic is also the primary research area for the Institute for the Future's Asia Focus Program in 2006. IFTF is an independent, nonprofit strategic research group with more than 35 years of forecasting experience based in Palo Alto, CA. ...

Just started to follow it again, a rich source of internet activities in China.

Finland's SMS Toilets

Finland's public roadside toilets are now openable only with a cellphone SMS text message.

Web 2.0 Applications

Colleagues point to an excellent index of Web 2.0 applications that can replace much of the for-pay bloatware that we use every day. Free applications on the Web that do most everything you need. Having this all in one place makes it easy to see the progress here. Is it only a matter of time before we get all of our software this way?

Project Management as a Service

Microsoft Project has been in use here for some time. I have used it for two large projects. I have just had the chance to look at project management Saas (Software as a service), two cases, Central Desktop and Basecamp. There are others, but these seem to be the most used. It's is often hard to manage large projects if you cannot precisely divide it into tasks.

I have always thought that it was more important to deliver stronger collaboration, than precisely predicted time lines. That's exactly what these packages try to do. I would guess that MS Project is more bloated with options, and thus harder to use as well. Note my experience with MS Project is now several years old. I found these other packages fairly easy to pick up. As software-as-a-service becomes more common, check these out. Does anyone know of others worth looking at? A sample Central Desktop review.

Cucina.com

Colleague Pete Blackshaw has set up a site that collects video recipes. Cucina.com A nice idea, which tries to capture some of the cultural background behind the recipes, beyond the stale, dry recipe cards. I am a long-time amateur cook, so the idea is compelling. May do one myself.

Leonardo Science

Just completed Fritjof Capra's The Science of Leonardo: Inside the Mind of the Great Genius of the Renaissance. The last book of Capra's I had read was The Tao of Physics and somehow have missed all his books since then. Leonardo's work has seen quite a bit of interest in the last twenty years. I had last read Charles Nicholl's Da Vinci bio: Flights of Mind, which impressed me with its focused detail. ( Nicholl's newest book: The Lodger, about a very thin but interesting slice of Shakespeare's life, is on the stack).

Capra's book looks at Leonardo's life and focuses on how his work predated a number of scientific discoveries hundreds of years later. As Capra points out, only about half of Leonardo's journal pages survive, so it's sometimes impossible to make conclusions about his final results. Some of his intermediate conclusions are wrong, so did he correct them later or not? Capra suggests so, but with little clear evidence. Even so, there are lots of fascinating examples.

As a person with background and interest in physics, I was particular taken by some of his work regarding the nature and behavior of light and the propagation of wave energy, predating Newton. His experience as a painter and a practical anatomist helped him think about how light interacted with our visual system in a number of novel ways. Also notable, his life-long interest and experience with turbulence.

Leonardo did not use symbolic mathematics, and his method of geometric argument, partly described in the appendix, is worth looking at. This also led to a 'science born of experience' that is more akin to today's social sciences than the use of math in the physical sciences. Making it even more amazing that he developed what he did. Since he did not publish and most of his work ended up being disregarded and half was lost, little of it acted as a building block for scientists of the next generation.

An easy read, with only the detail required to make the point, this book makes you want to read more. Capra uses a mix of primary and secondary sources and sometimes it made me want to read the books he quotes instead of his text. Also suggest you also look at Nicholl's book. See also Capra's web site, where Oliver Sacks gives an overview of the book.

Duncan Watts Blasts Influencer Models

We met Watts some years ago at the Sante Fe Institute and tried to understand how his theories could link to marketing. From Wim Van de Velde, an interview:

"Buzz-Kill: Columbia Prof Blasts Influencer Model
NEW YORK -- Influencers. Connectors. Mavens. For years, it has been conventional wisdom that to create a buzz, you have to first target those archetypes to get your word out. The theory, outlined in Malcolm Gladwell's 2000 bestseller The Tipping Point, posits that a minority of the population, some say 15%, have an undue influence over the rest of us. Such influencers tend to have more friends than most and also have an urge to acquire social capital (i.e. exclusive information and products) before everybody else. Though Gladwell takes pains to point out that the gregarious people (connectors) need to link up with social currency hoarders (mavens), many lump the two together. Now, Duncan Watts, a Columbia University sociology professor, is charging that the whole theory of influencers is bunk and most of the time buzz is spread by networks and a "critical mass of easily influenced people each of whom adopts, say, a look or brand after being exposed to a single adopting neighbor." ... '

Wim sends along a link to the original paper this article is based on.