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Wednesday, March 08, 2017

Superforecasting and Decision Makers

This is such an important issue.  So many claims are made for good forecasting,  but it is only as good as it is integrated into good decision making.   Forecasting is an analytic method,  but of little use if it can't contribute to value and less risk in decisions.  And as the authors suggest, forecasts are always 'wrong'.  Which calls for a modification of contextual decisions, based on required operations.   In Knowledge@Wharton:

Are You a Superforecaster? What Good Decision-makers Have in Common
 Wharton's Barbara Mellers and Michael Platt discuss their research on superforecasters.

While nobody can get forecasts right 100% of the time, research shows that there are certain kinds of people who are better at forecasting outcomes than others. Wharton marketing professors Barbara Mellers and Michael Platt, who are also Penn Integrates Knowledge (PIK) professors at the University of Pennsylvania, examine the intersection of marketing, psychology and neuroscience to understand the traits that “superforecasters” share and that can lead to better decision making. They recently talked about their research and its implications on the Knowledge@Wharton show on Wharton Business Radio on SiriusXM channel 111. (Listen to the podcast at the top of this page.)

Podcast, and an edited transcript of the conversation follows.  .... "

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