Germany's Plan to Tackle Rapidly Aging Workforce: Recruit Robots

 Connected with Japan on similar issues.

Germany's Plan to Tackle Rapidly Aging Workforce: Recruit Robots

By CNBC, May 11, 2023

Robots could be key to solving Germany’s labor shortage.

Germany is looking to digitalization to help solve a labor shortage crisis due to its aging population.

Exoskeletons, for instance, could help prevent injuries among workers in labor-intensive jobs, and robots could help free up workers to handle more complex and creative work while automating repetitive or physically demanding tasks.

Robot4Work's Cagri Pehlivan explained that "by automating those tasks with robots, older workers can continue to contribute their valuable skills and experience to the workplace in a way that is safe and comfortable for them."

However, Ulrich Walwei of Germany's Institute for Employment Research said the nation is experiencing a digital skills gap, and there is a need for digital competency to be taught in schools, in apprenticeships, and at university.

Eurostat data shows that 48.92% of the German population has "basic or above basic overall digital skills," compared to the European Union average of 53.92%.

From CNBC

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Germany Engaging Africa

Unexpected?

ACM TECHNEWS

Germany Taps Africa's IT Sector to Fill Labor Gap, By Deutsche Welle (Germany)

April 12, 2023

Students at the Innovation Lab at South Africa's University of Johannesburg learn how to develop software, algorithms, or video games.

The program aims to reduce the shortage of skilled IT workers in Germany, while giving some Africans the opportunity to work remotely, without leaving their home countries.

Credit: Maria Giulia Trombini/AFP

German companies hope to address domestic workforce shortages by training young Africans in information technology (IT).For example, German software firm AmaliTech trains Africans as software engineers, offering them paid positions following graduation.

Eckhardt Bode at Germany's Kiel Institute for the World Economy said this model should serve as a template, as Africa can supply much-needed workers via outsourcing or immigration.

Germany’s IT worker shortage is critical, given the unexceptional performance of many IT projects in German public administrations. Said Bode, "The African continent offers great potential to reduce the local labor shortage."

From Deutsche Welle (Germany)

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US Rail Strike Implication Studies

 Looking for studies that have been done regarding the current and near future implications regarding the possible US labor rail-strike.  In particular how this could could change costs of the supply chain by industry,  and ultimately costs for consumers.   Any pointers are appreciated and sources will be cited.  

Amazon Advances in Autonomous Robotic Systems

Thought they had already advanced here,   autonomy apparently a strong element, which brings labor needs into play. 

Amazon announces its first fully autonomous mobile warehouse robot

It can pick things up, put them down, and move them around

By Mitchell Clark  Jun 21, 2022, 8:49pm EDT  in TheVerge

Amazon has announced its “first fully autonomous mobile robot,” meant to move large carts throughout its warehouses. The robot is called Proteus, and Amazon says it can safely navigate around human employees, unlike some of its past robots that it kept separated in a caged area.

Amazon says Proteus robots have “advanced safety, perception, and navigation technology,” and a (strangely silent) video shows the robots shining a green light in front of themselves as they move around. When a human steps into the beam, the robot stops moving, then resumes after the person moves away.

The company has also announced several other robotic systems. One, called Cardinal, is a robotic arm that can lift and move packages weighing up to 50 pounds, which Amazon hopes to deploy in warehouses next year. The company says that its computer vision systems let it pick out and lift individual packages, even if they’re in a pile.

Amazon’s post also shows off tech that could let employees ditch the hand scanners they use to log barcodes. Instead, workers stand in front of a camera system that recognizes the packages without pausing to scan the label. There isn’t a lot of detail on how it works other than some combination of machine learning and a 120 fps camera system, but the effect is similar to what we’ve seen from the company’s Just Walk Out tech that lets it build cashierless stores. We’ve reached out to Amazon to ask exactly what the system is looking at and will let you know if we hear back.

As is often the case with new robot technology, there are potential labor concerns. Despite recent reports that Amazon could soon struggle to find workers, the company says it’s not looking to build robots instead of hiring people. A lead at Amazon’s robotics division explicitly told Forbes that “replacing people with machines is just a fallacy” that could lead to a company going out of business. However, robots could play a role in setting a pace of work that humans struggle to safely keep up with, something we’ve already seen happen at the company with automated management systems. The new scanning system especially seems like it could create unrealistic expectations about how fast workers should be moving.

For its part, Amazon claims all its new robots could actually help improve safety. Cardinal operates in places where workers would otherwise lift and twist heavy packages, a movement that can lead to injuries, and Proteus could “reduce the need for people to manually move heavy objects.” The company’s also working on a robot that would deliver containers to workers rather than having them bend or climb to reach items.

Addressing Labor Shortages with Automation

Thoughts on topic, but how can they be applied?

Addressing Labor Shortages with Automation  By Logan Kugler

Communications of the ACM, June 2022, Vol. 65 No. 6, Pages 21-23 10.1145/3530687

U..S. employment statistics hit a new milestone last year, but not a positive one. In August 2021, almost 4.3 million workers quit their jobs, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That's the highest number since the department began tracking voluntary resignations. Their reasons for leaving their jobs vary—the numbers track people who quit for a different position, as well as those who quit without having another job lined up.

While the reasons for quitting vary, one thing is clear: Businesses are having a tough time getting employees to come back. A full 80% of companies surveyed by the Conference Board, a business research nonprofit, say they are now finding it difficult to hire qualified workers.

This is a win for worker wages. Additional Conference Board research predicts U.S. wage costs for companies will rise 3.9% in 2022, the highest jump since 2008. In the U.K., the National Institute of Economic and Social Research expects average weekly earnings growth to jump 5.9% in 2021, compared with 1.8% in 2020. However, the growth in wages may not last.

The labor shortage, combined with wages increasing to try to attract new employees and keep those they have, have led many businesses to accelerate plans to adopt automation technologies like robots and smarter software. Such adoption is happening across industries like manufacturing, the service industry, and administrative work. It is unclear if this automation will alleviate a permanent shortage of workers who no longer want this type of work—or if it will permanently eliminate jobs that may be in future demand.

The recent surge in demand for automation started out as a temporary necessity, says Gad Levanon, vice president of Labor Markets at the Conference Board and founder of the organization's Labor Market Institute.

Many companies had to limit human interactions in order to comply with public health regulations during the pandemic. Using automation to take services online or rollout self-service options was the only way for some companies to keep doing business legally. However, as businesses reopen, many now see automation as a sensible permanent solution to the labor shortfall they now face.

"After massive layoffs during the early months of the pandemic, some have learned to operate with fewer workers by using more automation and other process improvements," says the Conference Board's Levanon says. "2021's severe labor shortage and accelerating wages may incentivize other employers to do the same."  .... '

Algorithm Optimally Divvies up Tasks for Human-Robot Teams

Good look at the cooperative issue. 

 ACM NEWS

Algorithm Optimally Divvies up Tasks for Human-Robot Teams  By SciTechDaily, May 26, 2022

As robots increasingly join people working on the factory floor, in warehouses, and elsewhere on the job, determining who will do which tasks increases in complexity and importance. People are better suited for some jobs, robots for others. And in some cases, it is advantageous to spend time teaching a robot to do a task now and reap the rewards later.

Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University's Robotics Institute (RI) have developed an algorithmic planner that helps delegate tasks to humans and robots. The planner, "Act, Delegate or Learn" (ADL), considers a list of duties and decides how best to assign them. The researchers asked three questions: When should a robot act to complete a task? When should a task be delegated to a human? And when should a robot learn a new task?

“There are costs associated with the decisions made, such as the time it takes a human to complete a task or teach a robot to complete a task and the cost of a robot failing at a task,” said Shivam Vats, the lead researcher and a Ph.D. student in the RI. “Given all those costs, our system will give you the optimal division of labor.”

From SciTechDaily

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Robots Doing the Kitchen Labor

 Intriguing to see where this is going, a close observer of process details and their improvement.  Opportunity is to do this right now. 

Amid the Labor Shortage, Robots Step in to Make the French Fries

The Wall Street Journal, Christopher Mims, August 7, 2021

Restauranteurs are implementing robots to automate food production amid a labor shortage and soaring demand for takeout and delivery. Entrepreneur Doug Foreman said increasingly affordable sensors and actuators and more accessible software, combined with automated food-handling systems, adds momentum to this trend. Barney Wragg at London-based robotics company Karakuri said, "The real challenge is, how do you make machines that can manipulate this peculiar, non-conformative, multi-dimensionally deformative substance." Startups are addressing this problem either by automating just one food-preparation step, or preparing one simple meal type, like a bowl. Many restaurateurs and executives considering kitchen automation are attracted to the technology's potential for consistency, reliability, and cost savings.  ... ' 

Is the U.S. Labor Shortage the Big Break AI Needs?

Labor needs and process are being re thought.too.

Is the U.S. Labor Shortage the Big Break AI Needs?

AI May Be the Big Break Labor Needs

Hesitancy and misconceptions about AI in the workplace have long been a barrier to widespread adoption, but companies experiencing labor shortages should consider where it can make their employees' lives better and easier, which can only be a benefit for bottom-line growth.

Millions are unemployed, yet companies can't find enough workers. At this particular moment, businesses need a stopgap solution either until September, when COVID-19 relief and unemployment benefits are earmarked to expire, or something longer-term and more durable that not only keeps the engine running but propels the ship forward.

Adopting AI can be the key to both.

Declaring that we're on the precipice of an AI awakening is probably nowhere near the most shocking thing you've read this year. But just a few short years ago, it would have frightened a vast number of people.

From TechCrunch

Wharton says Robots are Coming, but Just for Your Management

Robots are Coming, is Your Firm ready?

Wharton’s Lynn Wu talks about her research on how automation is reshaping the workplace in unexpected ways.

Audio Player at the link above.

Use Up/Down Arrow keys to increase or decrease volume.

If you’re worried that robots are coming for your job, you can relax — unless you’re a manager.

A new survey-based study explains how automation is reshaping the workplace in unexpected ways. Robots can improve efficiency and quality, reduce costs, and even help create more jobs for their human counterparts. But more robots can also reduce the need for managers.

The study is titled “The Robot Revolution: Managerial and Employment Consequences for Firms.”   The co-authors are Lynn Wu, professor of operations, information and decisions at Wharton; Bryan Hong, professor of entrepreneurship and management at the University of Missouri Kansas City’s Bloch School of Management; and Jay Dixon, an economist with Statistics Canada. The researchers said the study, which analyzed five years’ worth of data on businesses in the Canadian economy, is the most comprehensive of its kind on how automation affects employment, labor, strategic priorities, and other aspects of the workplace.

Wu recently spoke with Knowledge@Wharton about the paper and its implications for firms. (Listen to her full interview in the podcast at the top of this page.)

More Robots, More Workers

Contrary to popular belief, robots are not replacing workers. While there is some shedding of employees when firms adopt robots, the data show that increased automation leads to more hiring overall. That’s because robot-adopting firms become so much more productive that they need more people to meet the increased demand in production, Wu explained.

“Any employment loss in our data we found came from the non-adopting firms,” she said. “These firms became less productive, relative to the adopters. They lost their competitive advantage and, as a result, they had to lay off workers.”  ... '

Labor Intensive Work and Analytics

There will continue to be labor intensive jobs, with key skills required. 

Labor-intensive factories—analytics-intensive productivity

April 21, 2021 | Article in McKinsey

By Manuel Gómez, Jorge Riveros, and Kevin Sachs

New analytics tools can help manufacturers in labor-intensive sectors boost productivity and earnings by double-digit percentages.

Amid the extraordinary transformation of manufacturing over the past decade as the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) advances through sector after sector, some manufacturers still face a challenge almost as old as manufacturing itself: how to achieve lasting productivity gains from labor-intensive operations.

  00:00   Audio  Listen to this article

The seemingly obvious solution is sometimes summarized as swapping labor for capital, in the form of automation. Despite the availability of ever-more-sophisticated machinery at ever-lower cost, in many situations a more attractive alternative is to use digital and analytics technologies to support people rather than supplant them.

Even today, labor-intensive sectors can include everything from toys, apparel, and jewelry to medical devices, consumer-electronic products, electrical goods, and automotive components. These sectors are a critical force in emerging economies, providing employment that reduces poverty and strengthens social stability.

Where labor is so instrumental in creating value, managing a workforce becomes a matter of strategic importance. Companies that perform better at hiring, retaining, and—most crucial of all—engaging their workers can build a substantial advantage over their competitors. To do so, they must overcome a host of challenges, some of which became even more vexing under COVID-19. Ensuring that workers feel safe must, of course, be the highest priority. But providing a protective environment may not be enough to persuade every worker to come into factories—particularly workers juggling responsibilities to care for children and families that may have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic.

Companies that perform better at hiring, retaining, and—most crucial of all—engaging their workers can build a substantial advantage over their competitors. ... '  ( 6 pages) 

Understanding Impact of AI on Labor

Thoughful piece with some supporting visuals.

From The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).   https://pnas.org

Toward Understanding the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Labor

Morgan R. Frank,  View ORCID ProfileDavid Autor, James E. Bessen, Erik Brynjolfsson, Manuel Cebrian, David J. Deming, Maryann Feldman, Matthew Groh, José Lobo, Esteban Moro, Dashun Wang,  View ORCID ProfileHyejin Youn, and  View ORCID ProfileIyad Rahwan

PNAS April 2, 2019 116 (14) 6531-6539; first published March 25, 2019 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900949116
Edited by Jose A. Scheinkman, Columbia University, New York, NY, and approved February 28, 2019 (received for review January 18, 2019)
Article Figures & SI Info & Metrics PDF

Abstract
Rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation technologies have the potential to significantly disrupt labor markets. While AI and automation can augment the productivity of some workers, they can replace the work done by others and will likely transform almost all occupations at least to some degree. Rising automation is happening in a period of growing economic inequality, raising fears of mass technological unemployment and a renewed call for policy efforts to address the consequences of technological change. 

In this paper we discuss the barriers that inhibit scientists from measuring the effects of AI and automation on the future of work. These barriers include the lack of high-quality data about the nature of work (e.g., the dynamic requirements of occupations), lack of empirically informed models of key microlevel processes (e.g., skill substitution and human–machine complementarity), and insufficient understanding of how cognitive technologies interact with broader economic dynamics and institutional mechanisms (e.g., urban migration and international trade policy).

Overcoming these barriers requires improvements in the longitudinal and spatial resolution of data, as well as refinements to data on workplace skills. These improvements will enable multidisciplinary research to quantitatively monitor and predict the complex evolution of work in tandem with technological progress. Finally, given the fundamental uncertainty in predicting technological change, we recommend developing a decision framework that focuses on resilience to unexpected scenarios in addition to general equilibrium behavior. .... "

Full PDF, 9 Pages

See also:  Brookings: Putting Workers in the Future of Work.

Robots, AI and Machine Learning Will be Changing Your Jobs

All jobs will have their nature changed, not unlike how computing in general has changed many jobs.    MIT and IBM are studying the changes and what they mean.

The Future of Work: How New Technologies Are Transforming Tasks- Artificial intelligence - IBM Research

AI May Not Kill Your Job—Just Change It  via Wired.
Don't fear the robots, according to a report from MIT and IBM. Worry about algorithms replacing any task that can be automated: 

" ... Technology has long brought change to the nature of work, and to the skills required for the most desirable, best-paying jobs. But until recently, new technology – even robotics – has tended to mean automating repetitive or arduous tasks, while often leading to new types of tasks for workers. The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) poses a new set of opportunities – and challenges – for work and workers. The tasks that can be done by machine learning are much broader in scope than previous generations of technology have made possible. The expanded scope will change the value employers place on tasks, and the types of skills most in demand. As AI and machine learning transform businesses and reshape industries, the innovators of these technologies must consider not only the business implications, but also the societal impact. As a result, the MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab has engaged in a first-of-a-kind research that sheds new light on the reorganization of tasks within occupations by analyzing 170 million online job postings in the US between 2010 and 2017. There is no question that AI and related technologies will affect all jobs. The research reveals how tasks are transforming and what the implications are for employment and wages.   ... " 

47 Page pdf complete report.

Automation Requires Lifelong Learning

Agreed, most important will the kind of learning and training that will be required, which will also be a dynamically changing target.    Our own look at tasks that comprised jobs, and the continual redefinition of jobs, made that clear.

Automation Will Make Lifelong Learning a Necessary Part of Work
By Jacques Bughin, Susan Lund, Eric Hazan  in HBR ... ' 

Wal-Mart Robotics and Labor

 Since Wal-Mart is the largest private employer this is of considerable interest.   How will this use of robotics ultimately influence retail and other industries? Volume of labor versus quality?    Ultimately labor is a big cost that is continually examined.   Digital Trends takes a look:

Walmart expands fleet of robots to new stores, but promises it won’t cut jobs  By Eric Brackett  in Digital Trends. 

Decades after they revolutionized the manufacturing industry, robots are now making their way to the service industry. PCMag has reported that Walmart is planning on using robots to automate certain mundane tasks.

The world’s largest retailer said it hopes to use automation to “handle tasks that are repeatable, predictable and manual, like scanning shelves for out-of-stock items, incorrect prices, and wrong or missing labels.” The robots have already been deployed in multiple stores in Arkansas, Pennsylvania, and California. Now, the company is preparing to expand the project to 50 additional stores.

The company says that this technology will free up the retailer’s employees to “focus on what they tell us are the most important and exciting parts of working at Walmart — serving customers and selling merchandise.”  .... " 

7-Eleven Seeks Japan Labor Efficiency

There are worker shortages in Japan, so 7-Eleven stores are experimenting with RFID tagging to eliminate or greatly simplify checkout, and thus decrease labor needs.    Can this test translate to the US?    Can they tailor the method there and then migrate it.  Can the high cost of RFID be addressed? Recall the tests that Amazon Go is doing with the same idea.  This could a defining US example of retail automation.   More and discussion at Retailwire.