/* ---- Google Analytics Code Below */
Showing posts with label Decision Making. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Decision Making. Show all posts

Thursday, May 11, 2023

Jeff Goldstein of Acupoll Sends this, Of interest

Contact Jeff for more related input.

ACUPOLL uncovers 8 drivers of decision-making (vs. ChatGPT’s 6)

Jeff Goldstein via s17.avl3.acemsrvc.com   May 9, 2023, 10:17 AM (2 days ago)  to me  Acupoll

Dear Franz,

As humans we are often emotional, fueled by non-conscious impulses and automatic behavior.

We challenged ChatGPT to explain what factors determine when rational/conscious thinking takes more of a leading role in decisions.

The AI identified 6 – but ACUPOLL uncovered 2 additional factors that influence when the non-conscious plays a smaller role.

Click here  see all 8, along with an excerpt of our conversation with ChatGPT.

Thanks, Jeff      Jeff Goldstein, President, jeff@acupoll.com

P.S. Check out 5 Success Stories to capture both impulsive and conscious reactions to messaging, packaging, and more!


Friday, November 25, 2022

Optimal Decision Making

 Technical, but quite interesting point being made.  Optimality may be a good thing,  but how do I embed it in useful real time decisions?  Notably too the consideration of noise, often a key consideration.  This worth a look. 

Algorithm for Optimal Decision-Making Under Heavy-Tailed Noisy Rewards

Chung-Ang University (South Korea), November 17, 2022

Researchers at South Korea's Chung-Ang University (CAU) and Ulsan Institute of Science and Technology created an algorithm that supports minimum loss under a maximum-loss scenario (minimax optimality) with minimal prior data. The algorithm addresses sub-optimal performance for heavy-tailed rewards by algorithms designed for stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems. CAU's Kyungjae Lee said the researchers proposed minimax optimal robust upper confidence bound (MR-UCB) and adaptively perturbed exploration (MR-APE) methods. The team obtained gap-dependent and independent upper bounds of the cumulative regret, then assessed their methods via simulations conducted under Pareto and Fréchet noises. The researchers found MR-UCB outperformed other exploration techniques with stronger robustness and a greater number of actions under heavy-tailed noise; MR-UCB and MR-APE also could solve heavy-tailed synthetic and real-world stochastic MAB problems.

Full Article

Monday, March 07, 2022

How Does AI Improve Human Decision-Making

Improve, but always in contexts that make it hard to measure. 

How Does AI Improve Human Decision-Making?  by Irving Wladawsky-Berger

“Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the newest general-purpose technology (GPT),” wrote Sukwoong Choia, Namil Kim, Junsik Kim, and Hyo Kang in a recent paper, How Does AI Improve  Human Decision-Making? Evidence from the AI-Powered Go Program. “One remarkable characteristic of AI is its ability to provide humans with high-quality predictions at relatively low cost and to automate a wide range of predictions. AI has already outperformed human professionals in many domains - including strategic gameplay, medical diagnosis, and new drug development.” 

“Furthermore, as a GPT, the domains where AI outperforms humans are expanding at a fast pace. The rapid development and adoption of AI thus raise an interesting yet pressing question about how AI affects human tasks in these various domains. Studies of AI and human capital, for instance, have examined the performance gap between humans and AI, highlighting AI’s potential for replacing jobs.” However, we should keep in mind that new technologies have been replacing workers and transforming economies for over two centuries. But, over time, these same technologies led to the creation of whole new industries and new jobs, increasing productivity and economic output, raising earnings, and augmenting the demand for labor. ... ' 

Thursday, October 14, 2021

On the Psychology of Panic Buying

 Good article here.   In Fortune.  There might be ways to integrate the notion of control in consumer decision making?  Never heard it mentioned in this way.

The psychology of panic buying: why we stockpile pasta, toilet paper and gas when we don't need it

in Fortune.

Whether we are packing the freezer full of microwavable meals or sitting in a long line for gas in London, our first question is probably a simple one: Why do we do this to ourselves? 

That question has felt like the backbeat of our days since the pandemic began. When the first hints of a fast-spreading contagion appeared in early 2020, people around the world greeted the news with an almost universal response: We bought toilet paper. Then we bought up hand sanitizer, masks, pasta and beans, gym equipment, lumber, video game consoles, even puppies.

Now, with an energy crisis gripping much of Europe and a labor squeeze wracking post-Brexit Britain in particular, so-called panic buying has moved into a new realm—one where it can be nearly impossible to tease apart the role and weight of disrupted supply chains and climate change feedback loops in rounds of frantic over-purchasing that seem to blend one into the next. Of course, whether we are packing the freezer full of microwavable meals or sitting in a long line for gas in London, our first question is likely not which of the intertwined causes is most to blame, but something much simpler: Why do we do this to ourselves?

Psychologists, as it turns out, have spent much of the past 18 months studying this question, mapping out what a typical stockpiler looks like and is motivated by; how governments can limit it (hint: they're not doing great); and why there's more of this to come in our future. But here's one surprising conclusion: Just because it's called "panic" buying doesn't mean we're actually being irrational.

The who and the why

When it comes to the archetypal extreme panic buyer, there are few hard-and-fast rules: Several studies have found they tend to be better off—because over-purchasing requires, well, money—and a U.K. study found they're more likely to have kids. Other studies, including one out of Singapore, found panic buyers are most likely to be motivated by fear, or be motivated by social pressure, as well as the perceived severity of the situation; age and gender didn't seem to be that indicative.  .... 

 ..... And a study  https://doi.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fxlm0000883  from Australia earlier this year in the Journal of Experimental Psychology posited that panic buying was a reaction to extreme uncertainty—suggesting it gave people an illusion of control, even when they would have been better off sticking with their usual approach. .... '