Automating Space Weather Prediction

 Ultimately a very important function,  Coronal Mass Ejection is dangerous to many technical functions on earth.  Neural methods for pattern analysis for coronal holes.

AI Spots Coronal Holes to Automate Space Weather Prediction

Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (Russia), June 7, 2021

An international team of scientists brought automated space weather prediction a step closer to reality via a neural network that can identify coronal holes—gaps in the solar atmosphere left by particles that cause geomagnetic storms on Earth—in space-based observations. Robert Jarolim at Austria's University of Graz said CHRONNOS (Coronal Hole RecOgnition Neural Network Over multi-Spectral-data) applies artificial intelligence to spot coronal holes "based on their intensity, shape, and magnetic field properties, which are the same criteria as a human observer takes into account." The team trained the convolutional neural network on about 1,700 extreme ultraviolet wavelength images of the sun's corona recorded in 2010-2017, and compared its results to 261 manually identified coronal holes. CHRONNOS matched human performance in 98% of the cases, and outperformed humans in identifying coronal holes from magnetic field maps. ...  ' 

Vinton Cerf Discusses CMEs

Vint Cerf Discusses a number of environmental dangers to the earth.   And in particular Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).   I recall that when our enterprise was thinking of using the internet for  transfer of data the potential dangers of CME was brought up.   And because of my background in astronomy I was asked for an opinion and researched it.  Even talked to a local electricity provider, who had barely heard of it.  It is one of those very real, but very rare extra-terrestrial events we should at least consider thinking about.  Been following it since then.  Cerf provides a good overview, intro below, more at the link.  

It Came From Outer Space!  By Vinton G. Cerf

Communications of the ACM, June 2021, Vol. 64 No. 6, Page 7  10.1145/3462461

 "   ... But there is another, less predictable but potentially equally devastating threat to our modern dependence on electricity. It goes by the name of coronal mass ejection (CME) and occurs sporadically as the sun burns its hydrogen into helium and heavier elements. A CME consists mostly of masses of ionized protons in a plasma that are ejected at high speed from the sun's corona and propagated outward by the solar wind. These ionized ejections create power magnetic fields, which themselves can induce large currents in electrical conductors. One of the best documented CMEs occurred on Sept. 1, 1859 and is known as the Carrington Event after the English astronomer, R.C. Carrington who, along with R. Hodgson, observed and reported the event. Telegraph equipment and wires were overheated and damaged over a wide area. Not all CMEs threaten the Earth; they must intercept Earth in its orbit to do damage. 

There have been subsequent events in 1921 and 1989, but of lower intensity and causing less damage than the 1859 event. We are, however, far more deeply dependent on electricity and its transport than ever in human history. In the parts of the planet that are most heavily electrified, we find increased dependence on electrical equipment, especially including computing and communications. Along with an enormous number of devices dependent on electricity, our communication systems, including satellites, ground radio transceivers, and optical fiber systems are at risk. Subsea optical fibers are especially vulnerable. The CME does not affect the optical fiber but could severely damage the electrically powered repeaters needed to reinforce optical signals for long haul cables.  ..."   (more)