Risks of Computing

Most of us think that computers are very reliable. Sure they still sometimes freeze and we have to do drastic things to get them started again. Sometimes it is even required to do a power down like we had to do in the 80s. Things are much better than they used to be. It is rare now that you lose your work. It is still possible if you have a disk crash and were not careful to backup.

Even simple computer failures are critical if the computer is running an aircraft or operating medical equipment. It is also not all about just hardware and software. It's about the computer and people that interact with the system. Even the design of an interface has led to fatal accidents.

Ivars Peterson's mostly accessible 1995 book: Fatal Defect: Chasing Killer Computer Bugs, though now dated in its examples, is an introduction to the topic. (After I finished the book, I note that later chapters are IT technical and can likely be skipped). The book makes some good points, notably that it is impossible to build infallible computer systems. They are just too complex. Also, that a computer system is composed of user + interface + computing. And all of these are crucial. Today systems are connected to their environments with multiple sensors, leading to an even more complex and unpredictable set of inputs.

In the midst of the book there is a chapter about the risks of the Y2K bug which was then in the future and is now eight years in the past. Of course Y2K turned out to be a minimal problem. My own company installed a huge generator outside the headquarters's back door to deal with forecast power grid failures caused by Y2K. Never used to my knowledge. The risk database linked to below has a great historical view of that event. That tale is also worth considering. Sometimes predictions are incorrect.

SRI risks person Peter G. Neumann a key player in the book, was on a panel with me last year at IBM Almaden labs. He moderates a risks digest that is updated weekly. There is also an RSS feed. See also his book on Computer Related Risks. It is sobering to see the number of reports that come in about computing systems risks.