Factor Analysis and Bayesian Networks

Factor analysis was a favorite statistical method we used to analyze complex influences.  Here is a link to a Bayesian approach. 

Factor Analysis Reinvented—Probabilistic Latent Factor Induction with Bayesian Networks and BayesiaLab

Bayesian networks have been gaining prominence among scientists over the last decade, and insights generated with this new paradigm can now be found in books and papers that circulate well beyond the academic community. Practitioners and managerial decision-makers see references to Bayesian networks in studies ranging from biostatistics to marketing analytics. Therefore, it is not surprising that the relatively new Bayesian network framework prompts comparisons with more conventional methods, such as Factor Analysis, which remains widely used in many fields of study.

The goal of this webinar is to compare a traditional statistical factor analysis with BayesiaLab's new workflow for Probabilistic Latent Factor Induction using a psychometric example.

More information, slides, presentation.

Charging Moving Vehicles

In Spectrum IEEE

Wireless Power for Moving Electric Vehicles Closer to Reality     By Charles Q. Choi

 Two men stand in front of and beneath a pair of large white wheels trimmed with copper foil. Electronic equipment hangs from the bottom of the wheels and more equipment is on a table behind one wheel.

Wireless charging of moving electric vehicles is one step closer to hitting the road, Stanford University researchers say. Such technology could also help charge mobile devices, medical implants, and factory robots, the scientists add.

Wireless charging via a technique known as magnetic induction is currently used to power electric toothbrushes, power tools, robotic vacuum cleaners, medical implants, and other devices. Inductive charging depends on at least two coils—one in the power transmitter, and one in the power receiver. When the transmitter coil is energized, it generates an electromagnetic field that can transfer energy to the receiver coil. ... " 

Become a Marketing Detective: Induction to Deduction

More takes on the idea of 'Small Data' proposed by my former collaborator Martin Lindstrom in his recent book: Small Data: Tiny Clues that Uncover Huge Trends ... "    Another way to look at this is as an 'inductive' approach, where you are selectively looking for especially valuable patterns in data.  That method can be used for data, large or small.

In Big Data,  statistics is the usual tool of choice to make sense of the complexity.   With less data, even small data, you need the insight of a detective to find patterns that are useful, or can be combined with your internal insight rules of thumb to get to results.  That's deduction.  That's being a marketing detective.   The article linked to below takes such a Sherlock Holmesian approach to some examples for innovative marketing.

Why can this be more interesting than the world of 'Big Data'?  Because it can take the leverage closer to the 'business processes' we use every day.  More sense and less magic is easier to implement and appreciate.

See:   strategy+business: Corporate Strategies and News Articles on Global Business, Management, Competition and Marketing  ... A Not-So-Elementary Exploration of Brand Insight ...  " 

Induction and Data Science

All business uses this method, if they know it or not.  But rarely systematically.   Good presentation:

" .... Data science is about finding signals buried in the noise. It’s tough to do, but there is a certain way of thinking about it that I’ve found useful. Essentially, it comes down to finding practical methods of induction, where I can infer general principles from observations, and then reason about the credibility of those principles.

Induction is the go-to method of reasoning when you don’t have all of the information. It takes you from observations to hypotheses to the credibility of each hypothesis. In practice, you start with a hypothesis and collect data you think can give you answers. Then, you generate a model and use it to explain the data. Next, you evaluate the credibility of the model based on how well it explains the data observed so far. This method works ridiculously well.  ... " 

Abductive Reasoning, Sensemaking and Design

Via Brian Moon or Perigean Technologies, who writes on making sense of knowledge via methods like concept mapping.  Good piece at link.

Abductive Thinking and Sensemaking: The Drivers of Design Synthesis by Jon Kolko
Overview: Making Sense of Chaos

Designers, as well as those who research and describe the process of design, continually describe design as a way of organizing complexity or finding clarity in chaos. Jeff Veen, founder of Adaptive Path, has noted that "Good designers can create normalcy out of chaos" 

 The Importance of Synthesis during the Process of Design" IDSA 2007 Educational Conference Proceedings (San Francisco: IDSA), 2007. Jim Wicks, Vice President and Director of Motorola's Consumer Experience Design group explains that "design is always about synthesis—synthesis of market needs, technology trends, and business needs."[2] During synthesis, designers attempt "to organize, manipulate, prune, and filter gathered data into a cohesive structure for information building."[3] Synthesis reveals a cohesion and sense of continuity; synthesis indicates a push towards organization, reduction, and clarity.   .... "

Computational and Cognitive Creativity

An interesting article about the use of systems like Watson to add creative dimensions to what were in the past purely computational problems.    We made this observation a decade ago.  If you can supply direct computational solutions to simple parts of a problem, you can test many more solutions quickly, adding the ability to create and test quickly. It's another argument for abductive design. Now powered by AI style approaches. Good examples in article.

More on abductive thinking and design.

Update:  It was pointed out to me by Brian Moon that the paper linked to just above uses concept maps to illustrate this and related concepts such as 'sensemaking'.  Taking a look at papers this article points to.

Big Data for Better Design via Simulation

Intriguing view from IBM.  I further like the idea of using data and then creating simulations, perhaps more commonly called emulations, based on that data gathered.  That can then provide a method to test out alternative designs. This approach is sometimes called abductive reasoning, which we sought to use to combine quantitative and design approaches.  Have not seen the idea used to any degree elsewhere.  Also, could a decision style system be attached to guide the design process?  The article contains some interesting related examples.

Role of Intuition in Analytics: Abductive Reasoning

Intuition, creativity, even directed randomness are parts of analytics.  And thus also part of what we are now calling 'Big Data'.   Now how we do implement the use of intuition?  By setting up easily used sand boxes that allow us to test alternative solutions easily.  In the design world this is called 'abductive reasoning'.  It uses simulation methods to perform testing.  Worth examining. On this topic Tom Davenport writes in   The HBR and discusses further.

   " ... Many people have asked me over the years about whether intuition has a role in the analytics and data-driven organization. I have always reassured them that there are plenty of places where intuition is still relevant. For example, a hypothesis is an intuition about what’s going on in the data you have about the world. The difference with analytics, of course, is that you don’t stop with the intuition — you test the hypothesis to learn whether your intuition is correct. ... " 

  Well said.  We have been doing it for years.  Consider also adding a gamifying process to both evaluate the results and varying their application.

Failure of Design Thinking

In Innovation Excellence:  Interesting thoughts on the failure of design thinking.   A little muddled, but I do think there must be a stronger combination of business, quantitative/analytic and design thinking to get to useful results.   What I saw in the enterprise did not do this well.  " ... What will come next after Design Thinking will be an evolution of how Design Thinking will be integrated towards business and becomes a process with synergy. A holistic process that combines the user and the market, analytical and intuitive, deductive, inductive and abductive. What will complement more from Design Thinking will be how strategy, leadership and culture can be fully integrated into the system with synergy which will have a dominant effect in shaping the future of business in innovation. .... "

Gamifying Mundane and Innovative Processes

Lauren Carlson contacted me a few days ago to point out some posts in her Software Advice blog.  She originally posted a very good introductory note about the idea of Gamification for sales force automation.  In particular looking at the aspects  of using badge type rewards.   Not an area where we had tried to use the idea.  I have mentioned we had used the general gamify idea for solving tough problems which could use human interaction to generate alternative innovative solutions.  Most were adopted later by altering them using design considerations.

Then Vincent Beerman, followed with some more useful ideas about the concept,  he is the Director of Development for SpectrumDNA, a Social Loyalty and Gamification Agency. Spectrum designs and builds Social Loyalty Programs (SLPs) that drive profitable transactions by fusing classic loyalty mechanics with game dynamics into apps that ignite the social graph.  This work was new to me.

Altogether the beginning of an interesting conversation.  Beerman writes:

 " ... By applying game dynamics to SFA (sales force automation)  initiatives, managers can highlight the intrinsic rewards of helping others on the team through social indicators while providing the right extrinsic rewards for more mundane tasks. The rank and recognition game mechanic has driven the success of eBay, iTunes and Stack Overflow.   ... Gamification does not mean ‘to make a game.’ The art of gamification leverages the science of human motivation to highlight intrinsic motivators and supplement measurable action with extrinsic rewards and recognition in order to optimize experience and productivity. ... "

Read the whole thing, very good, a manifesto for those seeking to sell management on Gamification.  Not always easy.  I am struck to how much gamification can take up some of the aspects of industrial simulation and predictive analytics.  Its all about applying abductive methods to test out new, innovative methods that exist, un harvested,  in the minds of all our employees. Extracting them can be made to be fun.

Am continuing an exploration of the topic of gamification, more will be posted here in the coming week.  Want to collaborate in further evolving the use of gamiication in the enterprise? Join in the comments if you like.