" ... New Product Forecasting Using Structured Analogies
Learn about a new patent-pending approach that may be helpful in certain new product forecasting situations. Make manual overrides to the statistical forecasts, and get a better sense of the risks and uncertainties in new product forecasts through visualization of past new product introductions. ... They describe it further:
SAS has a new patent-pending approach to NPF that combines the use of analogies with structured judgment. This "structured analogy" process for new product forecasting has six main steps:
Query step: Find a set of candidate products that have similar attributes to the new product.
Filter step: Manually remove inappropriate or outlier products from the set of candidate products.
Cluster step: Cluster the candidate products according to their sales pattern, and manually select the most appropriate cluster to serve as the surrogate products.
Model step: Select the most appropriate statistical model for the cluster of surrogate products, and extract the statistical model features.
Forecast step: Use the extracted statistical model features to forecast the new product. ... "
No comments:
Post a Comment