Organizing Information in the Age of the Coronavirus

From the recent Webinar, has links to a version of the Covid Brain.

Organizing Information in the Age of the Coronavirus
Covid-19 Online Brains from TheBrain Big Thinker Web Event

Check out our distinct Brains on the world pandemic. Each Brain offers a unique perspective with different Thoughts, connections and categorizing structures. Use these examples to get started on visualizing your own perspective on critical world events and everything that matters in your life.

Continue the conversation on Twitter with #Covid19Brains

Creating Digital Brains for Analysis and Action

The recording will provide a broad range of perspectives and expertise on Brain creation for Covid-19 to help you get started on visualizing and sharing your own perspective. Whether you’re staying in to flatten the curve or out on the front lines, we all make a difference and we’re all connected.

Topics Include:

Why knowledge management is critical to solving complex problems
Visualizing and connecting large sets of information
Creating an information landscape that reflects your perspective
Aggregating world events, news items and scientific data from disparate information sources
Leveraging tags, thought types and link types to enhance organization

Interactive Q&A with Jerry Michalski and Dr. Mark Trexler

Visualizing Covid-19 Creating Digital Brains for Analysis and Action

Join Us Tomorrow!

Visualizing Covid-19
Creating Digital Brains for Analysis and Action

A Special Big Thinker Presentation Featuring:

Visualizing Covid-19
This Thursday, April 23, 2020
11:00 am Pacific Time, 2:00 pm Eastern Time

Register Now  https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/8728385502294360844

We are in unprecedented times. We wake up and go to sleep digesting a sea of information on the Covid-19 pandemic.

It’s critical for everyone to shape their own perspective of world events and TheBrain enables this. Join highly acclaimed Brain architects: Jerry Michalski and Dr. Mark Trexler. Both master Brain creators will demo their own Brains on Covid-19. Shelley Hayduk and Matt Caton from TheBrain will also debut their Covid-19 TeamBrain, as well as make it available for download to all attendees.

The session provides a broad range of perspectives and expertise on Brain creation for Covid-19 to help you get started on visualizing your own perspective.

Topics Include:

Crafting an information landscape that reflects your perspective
Strategies for mind mapping complex information networks
Visualizing world events, news items and scientific data
Aggregating disparate information sources from online news to documents and twitter feeds
Creating an all-encompassing Brain or mini content-focused Brains
Visualizing information geographically
Also features interactive Q&A with Jerry Michalski and Dr. Mark Trexler

Visualizing Covid-19
Brains for This Session
Now Available!  https://www.thebrain.com/covid 

Get a sneak peek at the different Brains covered during this session. View online and get the sample Brain now.

Race to Quantum

Useful sort view from Europe on quantum efforts underway.   There are very big stakes.   Solving the most complex, wicked problems in new ways.

By  Katia Moskvitch in Wired UK

Inside the High Stakes Race to Make Quantum Computers Work

Traditional computers—be it an Apple Watch or the most powerful supercomputer—rely on tiny silicon transistors that work like on-off switches to encode bits of data. Each circuit can have one of two values—either one (on) or zero (off) in binary code; the computer turns the voltage in a circuit on or off to make it work.

A quantum computer is not limited to this “either/or” way of thinking. Its memory is made up of quantum bits, or qubits—tiny particles of matter like atoms or electrons. And qubits can do “both/and,” meaning that they can be in a superposition of all possible combinations of zeros and ones; they can be all of those states simultaneously.

FOR CERN, THE quantum promise could, for instance, help its scientists find evidence of supersymmetry, or SUSY, which so far has proven elusive. At the moment, researchers spend weeks and months sifting through the debris from proton-proton collisions in the LCH, trying to find exotic, heavy sister-particles to all our known particles of matter. The quest has now lasted decades, and a number of physicists are questioning if the theory behind SUSY is really valid. A quantum computer would greatly speed up analysis of the collisions, hopefully finding evidence of supersymmetry much sooner—or at least allowing us to ditch the theory and move on.

A quantum device might also help scientists understand the evolution of the early universe, the first few minutes after the Big Bang. Physicists are pretty confident that back then, our universe was nothing but a strange soup of subatomic particles called quarks and gluons. To understand how this quark-gluon plasma has evolved into the universe we have today, researchers simulate the conditions of the infant universe and then test their models at the LHC, with multiple collisions. Performing a simulation on a quantum computer, governed by the same laws that govern the very particles that the LHC is smashing together, could lead to a much more accurate model to test.

Beyond pure science, banks, pharmaceutical companies, and governments are also waiting to get their hands on computing power that could be tens or even hundreds of times greater than that of any traditional computer.

And they’ve been waiting for decades. Google is in the race, as are IBM, Microsoft, Intel and a clutch of startups, academic groups, and the Chinese government. The stakes are incredibly high. .... "

What will Quantum Computing Mean?

A largely non-technical view of what Quantum Computing will mean.  Our own minor investigations looked at how very complex combinatorial problems (problems with many, many solutions) that might then be solved with these methods more easily.   These problems also relate to things like cryptography.

You Won't See Quantum Internet Coming   By Ryan F. Mandelbaum   in Gizmodo.

 The quantum internet is coming sooner than you think—even sooner than quantum computing itself. When things change over, you might not even notice. But when they do, new rules will protect your data against attacks from computers that don’t even exist yet.

Despite the fancy name, the “quantum internet” won’t be some futuristic new way to navigate online. It won’t produce any mind-blowing new content, at least not for decades. The quantum internet will look more or less the same as the internet you’re using now, but scientists and cryptographers hope it could provide protection against not only theoretical threats but also those we haven’t dreamed up yet.

“The main contribution of a quantum internet is to allow encrypted communication in a perfectly secure fashion that can’t be broken in principle, even if in the future we develop a more fundamental theory of physics,” Ciarán Lee, a researcher at University College, London, explained to Gizmodo. In short, the quantum internet would hopefully protect us from planned new computers, along with every theoretical computer for the foreseeable future.

So what’s the quantum internet? It’s what happens when you apply the weird rules of quantum mechanics to the way computers communicate with one another.  ... " 

Statistical Engineering Framework for Solving Large, Complex, Unstructured Problems

I got this late, I think you can still attend, I plan to ...

 ... On November 13, there will be a Chapter Meeting of the American Statistical Association Cincinnati Chapter (you do not need to be a member to attend!) at P&G's Mason Business Center (8700 Mason Montgomery Rd, Mason, OH 45040) from 2pm to 4 pm. There will be a talk given on Statistical Engineering by Allison Jones-Farmer (Van Andel Professor of Business Analytics & Professor, Farmer School of Business, Miami University) and William A. Brenneman (Research Fellow and Global Statistics Discipline Leader, Data and Modeling Sciences, Procter & Gamble Company). The abstract is provided below.

If you plan to attend, please send Jeremy Christman (christman.jc@pg.com) a note so that you can be added to the visitor list at P&G by Novenber 9.  (Send a note ASAP)

The Statistical Engineering Framework for Solving Large, Complex, Unstructured Problems:

More below the fold: 

Big and Analytic Problems at Procter & Gamble

Correspondent Gib Bassett looks at the Big Data and analytics environment at my former employer P&G, where we spent much time solving wicked problems.  It had a long history of doing that well, since the 60s at least.   Our little part started to weave in big data, architecture and AI.  This is a fascinating review from public sources.

Largely concur, but with the usual issues about doing these things in the big enterprise.   I have often hinted at the positives and negatives here.   In fact this blog is a log of how those innovative ideas have evolved, as a personal journey, inside and outside the company.

What Kinds of Questions Can We Answer?

What kinds of questions can data science answer?  Fascinating piece by Microsoft Data Scientist. Very fundamental idea.   Good way to present the idea to management.

" ... This post, authored by Brandon Rohrer, Senior Data Scientist at Microsoft, is the second in a three-part series introducing data science with no jargon. The first post covered What Can Data Science Do For Me?

Machine learning (ML) is the motor that drives data science. Each ML method (also called an algorithm) takes in data, turns it over, and spits out an answer. ML algorithms do the part of data science that is the trickiest to explain and the most fun to work with. That’s where the mathematical magic happens. 

ML algorithms can be grouped into families based on the type of question they answer. These can help guide your thinking as you are formulating your razor sharp question. ... " 

Read it all for the examples, will read the other parts of the series myself.

The Aha Moment and Working Memory

Fascinating.   Have had a handful of such aha moments.  Never tried to manage them.  How can that be done, or should it be?   How are our devices now a part of working memory?    Looking at the use of working memory.   In the HBR:

" ..... Having a high working memory capacity (WMC) generally helps with problem-solving by allowing us to avoid distractions, pull up relevant information, and complete multiple steps in a complex task. But not all problems benefit from that approach.

Previous research has shown that people with high WMC will choose problem-solving strategies that play to their strengths, adding more steps and complexity to the process than are strictly necessary — or efficient. Researchers have also found that high WMC individuals will direct the power of focused attention on activities that are actually performed better without it (such as dribbling a soccer ball or touch-typing).   ... " 

Teaching Problem Solving on the Sales Floor

Retailwire: Good piece.  I will add:  Yes, certainly preparation is a big part, though many problems will arise that are not enough like previous ones encountered in training to know what the match to solution should be.

Adaptive training, role playing, taking criticism and advice, shadowing experienced people, where the people you are shadowing also know not to just take over, and allow you to work your way through a problem.  Seeing and experiencing many, many alternative right and wrong solutions.

 Understanding the goals of the organization.   And especially, having empathy to people that are not millennials like you.  I have worked on the retail sales floor.

General Morphological Analysis for the Wicked

Just received, points to excellent resources and examples of morphological, or 'structural' analysis. This should see much more application,  consider applying it before detailed quant data is acquired for a complex problem.  It can show you rich opportunities of structure for particularly wicked problems.

 ....  via Tom Ritchey, SweMorph | Swedish Morphological Society ... 

For those who are interested in the numerous and varied applications of general morphological analysis (GMA), the following article is now available at AMG:  

Álvarez, A. & Ritchey T. (2015) “Applications of General Morphological Analysis: From Engineering Design to Policy Analysis”, Acta Morph Gen, 4(1). 

Abstract: Since its conception and development in the late 1940’s by Fritz Zwicky at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), the “morphological approach” – or General Morphological Analysis (GMA) – has been applied to many diverse areas of study, from engineering design and technological forecasting to policy analysis, organisational development and creative writing. This article outlines the numerous applications of GMA since the 1950’s and gives examples from some 80+ published articles. Early examples of Zwicky’s work are also described and an overview of modern, computer-aided GMA is presented. 

The applications are divided up into the following categories: 

• Engineering and product design 
• General design theory and architecture 
• Futures studies and scenario development 
• Technology foresight/technological forecasting (a subset futures studies) 
• Management science, policy analysis and organisational design 
• Security, safety and defence studies 
• Creativity, innovation and knowledge management 
• Modelling theory, OR methods and GMA itself     ..... 

Tackling Wicked Problems

This week’s presenter for the ISSIP SIG Education & Research Service Evangelist Series is Professor Gerald Midgley, Associate Dean for Research and Enterprise, Hull University Business School, University of Hull.    In the enterprise we had teams devoted to the concept of wicked problems.

Title of his presentation is:
Introduction to Systems Thinking for Tackling Wicked Problems.  Slides Here.

Computational Thinking With Wolfram Language

An excellent transcript (with pictures) of the talk and detailed demonstration given by Stephen Wolfram at the recent SXSW on their Wolfram Language.    We looked at Wolfram Alpha when it was released, but I have not looked at their generalized computation language for some time.   Looks impressive, deserves a look.  

" ... From an intellectual point of view, the goal of the Wolfram Language is basically to express as much as possible computationally—to provide a very broad way to encapsulate computation and knowledge, and to automate, as much as possible, what can be done with them. ... " .  

All that being said, as a practitioner and leader of computational competencies in the enterprise, who interviewed many students, I saw relatively few students trained in Wolfram methods.  What we saw were typically those trained in the languages of the big computer software companies, or were open source methods now being used in schools,  like R or Python.   Wolfram seems to make a good case that their methods are better, now how can they show that to schools?   Is it better enough to make the case?

Perhaps better for generalized problem solving courses, but such courses are not common, rather than programming or machine learning courses.  This may well be the fault of CS curricula today, companies like mine now do little low-level programming, but need to do lots of problem solving.

Check out the examples in the demonstration above, these are things that would be very difficult to do readily with general purpose programming, or R or Python.

Team Innovation and the Art of Problem Solving

A High school oriented piece that is quite useful.    Would have loved to have seen this kind of thing when I was in school, or when I had bright kids in school.  Pass it on to yours.

" .. Talk of innovation is everywhere in the business world. To be an innovator is to position yourself on the path to a successful life and career. In this second part of a four-part audio webcast for educators on innovation and the art of problem solving, Saikat Chaudhuri, executive director of the Mack Institute for Innovation Management at the Wharton School, and Rob Shelton, global innovation strategy lead at PwC, discuss innovation in action — from some inspiring examples to an explanation of why innovation is a team sport. ...  "

Innovation and Problem Solving

This is from the Knowledge@Wharton High School edition.   Following it now.  Nicely done podcasts and text. Wish I had access to this kind of information back then.   Covers real people doing real things today.  Not just educational fluff.   Pass this on to your mentees and students at this level, or look at it yourself.  Thought provoking to all

Adaptive Reasoning and Human Problem Solving

Brought to my attention.  Solicitation by IARPA still open.  Below the synopsis.  Agree strongly that this is a big topic.  Its about the data, AND finding new ways to make it useful in the business process solving context.  That context it shifting constantly.

" ... Adaptive reasoning and problem-solving (ARP) are increasingly valuable for information-oriented workplaces, where inferences from sparse, voluminous, or conflicting data must be drawn, validated, and communicated-often under stressful, time-sensitive conditions. In such contexts, an ability to apply inductive and deductive reasoning to complex, ambiguous and/or novel problems is critical. Accordingly, optimizing an analyst's adaptive reasoning could pay large dividends in the quality of their analytic conclusions and information products. Given adaptive reasoning tests' high predictive value for performance and productivity, proven methods for strengthening adaptive reasoning and problem-solving could have significant benefits for society in general, as well as for individuals whose work is both analytical and cognitively demanding. Intriguingly, some recent research suggests that these capabilities may be strengthened, even among high-performing adults. Despite some promising results, however, there are methodological and practical shortcomings that currently limit the direct applicability of this research for the Intelligence Community. ... "  

Morphological Analysis for Wicked Problem Solving

A morphology is a set of structures that are used to define a category.  It is often used in one of my interest areas: Botany.  See the image on the right, where it defines leaf structures. It turns out that it can also be used to define and solve difficult, 'wicked' problems that are numerically or statically ill defined.    Problems that include choices among consumers, or policy definitions, or strategic choices.   I was recently re-introduced to the idea by Tom Ritchey and discovered that the method was more mature than I thought.  Useful for problems that are hard to quantify but whose solution spaces need to be explored.  I am further examining, if you have any comments, please pass along.  In a recent paper: 

General morphological analysis (GMA) is a method for structuring and investigating the total set of relationships contained in multidimensional, usually non-quantifiable, problem complexes. Pioneered by Fritz Zwicky at the California Institute of Technology in the 1930s and 1940s, it relies on a constructed parameter space, linked by way of logical relationships, rather than on causal relationships and a hierarchical structure. During the past 10 years, GMA has been computerized and extended for structuring and analysing complex policy spaces, developing futures scenarios and modelling strategy alternatives. This article gives a historical and theoretical background to GMA as a problem structuring method, compares it with a number of other ‘soft-OR’ methods, and presents a recent application in structuring a complex policy issue. The issue involves the development of an extended producer responsibility (EPR) system in Sweden:    Journal of the Operational Research Society (2006) 57, 792–801.

An overview by Tom Ritchey and a link to his excellent book on the topic.
WP definition of morphological analysis.
A lecture video on the method.
And the Swedish Morphological Society.

Via Swedish Morphological Society
Ritchey Consulting LLC
Dr. Tom Ritchey
Email: ritchey@swemorph.com |  www.ritcheyconsulting.org

Diagramming Sentences and the Power of Morphology

The Language log Blog brings up diagramming sentences.  Very familiar and mostly disliked activity in early education in the US.  I remember being much intrigued by the application of this method to determine the structure, or morphology, of something like our own language. A first step in managing the knowledge that exists in language.  The article points out that the method is still in use and there are many resources that exist for it and are easily accessible.  Stripping a difficult problem down to its morphology can be a powerful way to solving it. I will follow later this week with a post that shows how morphology can address the wicked problems of today.

Social Wicked Problems

An interesting technical look at the application of 'wicked problem' techniques to social problems.  We used the term to indicated difficult to formalize and solve problems of many kinds.  Even this abstract is too convoluted, but here goes:  " ... If you work in an organisation that deals with social, commercial or financial planning – or any  type of public policy planning – then you’ve got wicked problems. You may not call them by this  name, but you know what they are. They are those complex, ever changing societal and organisational planning problems that you haven’t been able to treat with much success, because they won’t  keep still. They’re messy, devious, and they fight back when you try to deal with them. This paper  describes the notion of wicked problems (WPs) as put forward by Rittel & Webber in their landmark article “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning” (1973). It presents the ten criteria they  use to characterise WPS, and describes how general morphological analysis (GMA) can be used to  structure and analyse such problems complexes. ... " 

The Design of Procter and Gamble

I have been reading The Design of Business: Why Design Thinking is the Next Competitive Advantage by Roger L. Martin of the Rotman School of Management in Toronto. The book does an excellent job of introducing you to design concepts, and their applications in business.

I will review the introductory parts of the book in another post, but I want to point out that Chapter 4 of the book, pp. 75- 103, called Transforming the Organization, are devoted to describing P&G's embracing of the design concept in the 2000s, and the remarkable results that came about. I was hired into P&G in the late 70s, very much an analytically and engineering oriented problem solver. I saw this transition occur and although I was skeptical at first, saw a number of very useful results.

A number of new design processes were created to make the best use of mysteries, heuristics and algorithms within the knowledge funnel (well defined in the book) to further the abilities of the company. Top down organizations were set up under the leadership of Claudia Kotchka, to help people understand design.

A method of solving 'wicked problems' was instituted to remove some of the friction in moving innovation forward. Connect & Develop was created to effectively bring in external innovation. I would have included more about how P&G's innovation centers were used to establish laboratories to test the ideas. They also engaged Global Business Services to use IT methods to build 'decision cockpits' to help groups work together.

As the book points out: the idea of 'design is NOT about making things pretty', but how to spark innovation and make it work. It is about continuously demonstrating and letting people experience the value of design in business.

Anyone interested in P&G's approach, and how this is credited by many with saving P&G in the early 2000s should read this book. It's business writing of the best kind, describing both the theory and why it works with great examples. Experience at several other companies is also covered. Its also a nice slice of corporate history at P&G.
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