Podcast: Why Our Judgment is Flawed

 An important idea to understand,  and I think even our quick jump to assume that our judgments are wrong also needs to be better understood.   In ourselves and in our growing number of  machines. 

Daniel Kahneman on Why Our Judgment is Flawed — and What to Do About It (People I (Mostly) Admire Ep. 27)

May 14, 2021 @ 11:00pm

by Steven D. Levitt,  Produced by Morgan Levey

Nobel laureate, best-selling author, and groundbreaking psychologist Daniel Kahneman is also a friend and former business partner of Steve’s. In discussing Danny’s new book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, the two spar over inconsistencies in criminal sentencing and Danny tells Steve that “Your attitude is unusual” — no surprise there.

Listen and follow on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Game Theory and Cybersecurity

A Purdue connection informed me of this. A rare practical pointer to Nash equilibrium in game theory.   And 'Prospect theory' which I had not heard of.  Dealing with aspects of risk.  But  I see it is what Kahneman's work is called.  Taking a closer look.

Game Theory Harnessed for Cybersecurity of Large-Scale Nets
Purdue University News   By Emil Venere

Researchers at Purdue University are leading the development of a platform for improving the cybersecurity of large-scale networks by tapping game theory and new intelligent algorithms. Purdue professor Shreyas Sundaram says the team has harnessed Nash equilibrium as well as prospect theory, defining how people make decisions amid uncertainty and risk. Sundaram thinks the work "will lead to a more complete understanding of the vulnerabilities that arise in large-scale interconnected systems and guide us to the design of more secure systems." The team has demonstrated the formulation of an "optimization problem" to efficiently calculate how much a given stakeholder will decide to invest, and they plan to use the "moving-target defense," in which the system can reconfigure itself to lower a repeated cyberattack's success rate. "The project will provide new insights into the types of decisions that humans make when faced with security threats, via a comprehensive approach spanning theory and experiments," says Purdue professor Timothy Cason. ... "

Manipulators of the Mind

Was brought up in this same age of of behavioral economics and advertising tricks. But they never came of age until there was technology interactive enough to deliver them.   Good or bad?

In News from the Edge:  https://www.edge.org/    5/1/2017

Invisible Manipulators of Your Mind     By Tamsin Shaw  

In 2007, and again in 2008, Kahneman gave a masterclass in “Thinking About Thinking” to, among others, Jeff Bezos (the founder of Amazon), Larry Page (Google), Sergey Brin (Google), Nathan Myhrvold (Microsoft), Sean Parker (Facebook), Elon Musk (SpaceX, Tesla), Evan Williams (Twitter), and Jimmy Wales (Wikipedia). At the 2008 meeting, Richard Thaler also spoke about nudges, and in the clips we can view online he describes choice architectures that guide people toward specific behaviors but that can be reversed with one click if the subject doesn’t like the outcome. In Kahneman’s talk, however, he tells his assembled audience of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs that “priming”—picking a suitable atmosphere—is one of the most important areas of psychological research, a technique that involves offering people cues unconsciously (for instance flashing smiley faces on a screen at a speed that makes them undetectable) in order to influence their mood and behavior. He insists that there are predictable and coherent associations that can be exploited by this sort of priming. If subjects are unaware of this unconscious influence, the freedom to resist it begins to look more theoretical than real.

The Silicon Valley executives clearly saw the commercial potential in these behavioral techniques, since they have now become integral to that sector.…..

Invisible Manipulators of Your Mind
Tamsin Shaw APRIL 20, 2017 ISSUE
The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds
by Michael Lewis .... " 

Quantum Physics and Decision Making

A very broad metaphor based on famous quantum thought experiments.  But still an intriguing idea.   Pointers to some related work by Kahneman and others.  " ... This new theory is still in its infancy, but this type of thinking may lead to better understanding of how we make decisions. It provides a new framework in which previous, sometimes contradictory, theories can live (in superposition?) simultaneously. .... "  

Brains and Computers, Singularities

Technical Philosophy In the Edge:

Death Is Optional
Yuval Noah Harari and Daniel Kahneman: A Video Conversation

"Once you really solve a problem like direct brain-computer interface ... when brains and computers can interact directly, that's it, that's the end of history, that's the end of biology as we know it. Nobody has a clue what will happen once you solve this. If life can break out of the organic realm into the vastness of the inorganic realm, you cannot even begin to imagine what the consequences will be, because your imagination at present is organic. So if there is a point of Singularity, by definition, we have no way of even starting to imagine what's happening beyond that." .... 

Cognitive Systems Colloquium

Jim Spohrer writes, more at the live blogging link:

" ... Today’s Cognitive Systems Colloquium at IBM Research in Yorktown Heights, N.Y., brings together leaders in science, technology and psychology to discuss the coming era of cognitive computing and to craft a shared agenda among industry, academia and government. Come back during the all-day event for updates on presentations by Nobel Prize laureate Daniel Kahneman, A.I pioneer Danny Hillis and others.   More. 

Live Blogging from the IBM Research Cognitive Systems Colloquium smarterplanet.tumblr.com

Today's Cognitive Systems Colloquium at IBM Research brings together leaders in science, technology and psychology to craft a shared agenda for the future. By Steve Hamm Today's Cognitive Systems Colloquium at IBM Research in Yorktown.  ... " 

Thinking Under Biases. Fast and Slow

A friend sends a  link from the WSJ:  Why the Grass Seem's Greener.  " ... We are of Two Minds - One deliberative and rational, the other quick and intuitive.  They often don't agree. ... "  A review of the book by economist Daniel Kahneman: Thinking, Fast and Slow. 

Behavioral Research in System 1 vs System 2

If you have been following some recent advances in thinking about cognition: " ... Charles Young examines what we can learn about measuring ad effectiveness by applying Daniel Kahneman’s System 1 and System 2 theory of cognition.  ... " via Jeff Goldstein of AcuPoll.

Decision Making Science

New and of interest:

Thinking: the New Science of  Decision Making, Problem solving and Prediction.
CONTRIBUTORS: Daniel C. Dennett, Philip Tetlock, Gerd Gigerenzer, Daniel Gilbert, Vilayanur Ramacahndran. Timothy D. Wilson, Sarah-Jayne Blakemore, Bruce Hood, Simon Baron-Cohen, Gary Klein, Simon Schnall, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Alva Noe, Daniel L. Everett, Jonathan Haidt, Joshua Greene, Sam Harris, Roy Baumeister, Paul Bloom, Daivd Pizarro, Joshua Knobe, Daniel Kahneman

"Thinking is excellent and mind-expanding in its entirety. Complement it with Brockman's This Will Make You Smarter: New Scientific Concepts to Improve Your Thinking, one of the best psychology books of 2012."
--Maria Popova, BRAIN PICKING

"For ... readers interested in keeping up with what serious thinkers are thinking about thinking, this book offers nourishing food for thought".  (Kirkus Reviews)

Common Cognitive Traps in Innovation

In the HBR:  (Requires free registration):   Key point being made is that estimation error can be a key element for building on innovation.  Always try to build numerical estimations of facts, then verify them with reality.  " ... Which is the more likely cause of death — shark attack or falling airplane parts? The answer to Nobel prize winning psychologist Daniel Kahnemann’s question is surprising; falling airplane parts. (In fact, you are 30 times more likely to die from a piece of falling airplane than you are at the jaws of a shark.) We have tested this query with senior executives across multiple continents, and they inevitably get it wrong. Why does this happen? Events are perceived as more likely to occur if they are easier to bring to mind. We have the TV special Shark Week and movies like Jaws to remind us of the danger of sharks, but there is no Airplane Debris Week. With unfamiliar, low probability events,  disproportionate media coverage can lead to gross estimation errors. ... "

Science of Human Nature and Behavior: A Master Class

I was reminded of this conference by a correspondent,  held in 2011:

In The Edge:
" ... Princeton psychologist Daniel Kahneman on the marvels and the flaws of intuitive thinking; Harvard mathematical biologist Martin Nowak on the evolution of cooperation; UC-Santa Barbara evolutionary psychologist Leda Cosmides on the architecture of motivation; UC-Santa Barbara neuroscientist Michael Gazzaniga on neuroscience and the law; Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker on the history of violence; and Princeton religious historian Elaine Pagels on The Book of Revelations ... ". 

At the link, videos, written materials and links to many of the authors' work.  A rich set of materials.

CFOs Thinking Fast

Brought to my attention by a collaborator.  I am a believer in quantitative analytic thinking and a critic of intuitive flash thinking, so obviously agree to these cautions,  In the WSJ: 

" When CFOs Think Fast ……They may get the company into a lot of trouble. Here's where they go astray—and how to avoid it. ... Daniel Kahneman, in his best-selling book, "Thinking, Fast and Slow," says there are basically two modes of thinking. Fast and slow. Fast thinking is intuitive, he says. It arises from experience and broad unconscious associations between ideas. Slow thinking, in contrast, relies on reason, analysis and deliberation. Both have their time and place. But the psychology professor and Nobel laureate in economics warns about the risks of too much fast thinking when thinking slowly would lead us to better decisions.... "

Thinking Fast and Slow

I have been making my way through Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow for the last few months.  This is very well worth reading.  I do wish there was more about how these  ideas could be applied more generally to areas like marketing and merchandising.   I can see how it might be.  Also a good source of behavioral research information. 

Freeman Dyson, physicist and favorite thinker and writer, insightfully reviews : Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman. Excellent thoughts regarding How to dispel your illusions. The basis of irrationality in economic decision making. Includes his take on the famous 'luck vs skill' Lancaster bomber survival analysis of WWII. Even addresses the near universal dilemma of calorie consumption among many of us.

Thinking Fast and Slow

Freeman Dyson, physicist and favorite thinker and writer, insightfully reviews : Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman.  Excellent thoughts regarding How to dispel your illusions. The basis of irrationality in economic decision making.  Includes his take on the famous 'luck vs skill' Lancaster bomber survival analysis of WWII.  Even addresses the near universal dilemma of calorie consumption among many of us.

Thinking Fast and Slow

In the NYT Book review: A review of Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman.  The dismantling of 'Homo Economicus'.    Heady stuff that has stimulated a lot of new thinking about decisions and their irrationality.

Master Class on the Science of Human Nature

In The Edge: This looks very good.

 " ... Princeton psychologist Daniel Kahneman on the marvels and the flaws of intuitive thinking; Harvard mathematical biologist Martin Nowak on the evolution of cooperation; UC-Santa Barbara evolutionary psychologist Leda Cosmides on the architecture of motivation; UC-Santa Barbara neuroscientist Michael Gazzaniga on neuroscience and the law; Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker on the history of violence; and Princeton religious historian Elaine Pagels on The Book of Revelations ... ".   

Wow, where else could you get such an all star, free set of lectures?  The first one is ready for viewing and the others will follow.