Epidemic Research

Simulation and Paradoxes are noted. 

Researchers Outline Bias in Epidemic Research, Offer Simulation Tool to Guide Future Work

New York University, March 31, 2022

Researchers at New York University (NYU) have identified biases in epidemic research and developed a simulation tool to improve research methodologies. The researchers examined the Grue Paradox, Simpson's Paradox, confirmation bias, and other paradoxes, fallacies, and bias in the context of epidemic research and the COVID-19 pandemic. They developed the open source Epidemic Simulation (Episimmer) platform to offer decision support. Episimmer undertakes "counterfactual" analyses, which involve measuring the impact to an ecosystem of such paradoxes, fallacies, and bias without interventions or policies to help users identify opportunities and optimizations that could be included in their COVID-19 strategies. Said NYU's Inavamsi Enaganti, "Faced with a rapidly evolving virus, inventors must experiment, iterate, and deploy both creative and effective solutions while avoiding pitfalls that plague clinical trials and related work."  .... ' 

Defining Epidemics

Late to this, but interesting and well done. . Mostly non technical and visually presented.

Chasing the Elusive Numbers That Define Epidemics

By Jordana Cepelewicz, Staff Writer   in Quanta Magazine

Most modeling efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic have sought to address urgent practical concerns. But some groups aim to bolster the theoretical underpinnings of that work instead.

Researchers can’t directly observe many key features of disease transmission. As a result, they rely on statistical models to translate what they can see to what they want to know. But they’re finding that for COVID-19 in particular, some of these methods have been giving them the wrong answers.  ... " 

Recent Posts relating to Pandemic Conditions and Related Emergent Tech

Recent posts that relate to Contravirus and COVID-19 in this blog.  Primarily dealing with data, prediction, data visualization, Modeling, communication, AI and emergent technologies role in addressing pandemic issues.     Please pass along anything you would like added to this stream.

Predicting Epidemics and Other Complex, Dynamic and Dangerous Events.

And several decades ago, we also examined these data and methods, also aimed at epidemics, that aimed at doing this and bioterror as well.   We did not have all the methods or computing of today, but could have done lots with what we had.   Was always surprised that it was not taken further.  Please do that now.

AI could help with the next pandemic—but not with this one

Some things need to change if we want AI to be useful next time, and you might not like them.
by Will Douglas Heaven

It was an AI that first saw it coming, or so the story goes. On December 30, an artificial-intelligence company called BlueDot, which uses machine learning to monitor outbreaks of infectious diseases around the world, alerted clients—including various governments, hospitals, and businesses—to an unusual bump in pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China. It would be another nine days before the World Health Organization officially flagged what we’ve all come to know as Covid-19.

BlueDot wasn’t alone. An automated service called HealthMap at Boston Children’s Hospital also caught those first signs. As did a model run by Metabiota, based in San Francisco. That AI could spot an outbreak on the other side of the world is pretty amazing, and early warnings save lives.

This story is part of our coverage of the coronavirus/Covid-19 outbreak, all of which is available for free. You can also sign up for our coronavirus newsletter.   .... "

Rush to Deploy Robots in China Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

Rush to implement robotic solutions.  Less potential infection, but are they skilled and perceptive enough to perform assistant functions needed?

A patrol robot checking temperature and disinfecting people The Rush to Deploy Robots in China Amid Coronavirus Outbreak
CNBC     By Rebecca Fannin

Chinese companies are scrambling to deploy robots and automation to take over for absent workers as the coronavirus spreads. An American Chamber of Commerce survey of 109 companies in Shanghai found that about 50% face staff shortages over the next few weeks, while 66% cited insufficient personnel to run full production lines. The Reshoring Institute's Rosemary Coates said the COVID-19 outbreak is a reckoning for both Chinese and U.S. supply chain and risk managers, and finding ways to maintain production for restarting factories could include more automation and robots as substitutes for humans. Emil Hauch Jensen at Mobile Industrial Robots in Shanghai said the coronavirus epidemic has put a "renewed urgency behind the trend towards increased automation and use of robotics in China."  .... '

China Gives Citizens a Danger Code

Via ACM.   Is this a 'troubling precedent', or a reasonable approach for imminent danger?

In Coronavirus Fight, China Gives Citizens a Color Code, with Red Flags
The New York Times
Paul Mozur; Raymond Zhong; Aaron Krolik
March 1, 2020

To manage the coronavirus epidemic, China is requiring citizens to use software on their smartphones to determine whether they should be quarantined or allowed into public spaces—but an analysis in The New York Times found that the underlying code seems to share information with the police. Citizens sign up via the Alipay digital wallet app, then receive a color code denoting their health status. An accompanying quick-response code allows or disallows users to travel freely, according to the color code. Once a user grants the software access to personal data, a program component transmits their location, city name, and an identifying code number to a server. The developers of the Alipay Health Code said the software uses big data to rate an individual's contagion risk, while critics warn the system establishes a troubling precedent for automated social control through mass surveillance. ... " 

China Digital Currency and Virus

Origin of this comments makes this interesting, a means of regulating otherwise hard to control financial results coming from less controllable events like epidemics?

Coronavirus outbreak could accelerate China's digital currency issuance, says former central bank president    by Celia Wan  in TheBlock

Efforts to combat the coronavirus could accelerate the Chinese central bank's plans to issue a digital currency, according to a former president of the People's Bank of China.

In a February 16 interview with China Daily, Lihui Li argued that a digital currency's efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and convenience make it especially desirable during an epidemic. Li previously helmed the People's Bank of China and now serves as the blockchain lead for the state-run National Internet Finance Association. .... " 

Tackling Flu with Virus Simulations

We worked with the San Diego Supercomputer center.  Quite a global challenge is emerging here and the emerging approaches will be good to track for reapplications.   Whats the best process for future reapplications?

Researchers Tackle the Flu with Virus Simulations
UC San Diego News Center
Cynthia Dillon
February 25, 2020

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) and University of Pittsburgh researchers have developed new molecular virus simulations to help fight influenza. The researchers used the Influenza A H1N1 2009 pathogen to analyze two binding sites in the virus' molecular environment, yielding an all-atom, solvated, experimentally based integrative model. Assembling the simulation required combining different types of experimental data at different resolutions, and the researchers utilized the Blue Waters supercomputer at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign to model atomic movements in the viral envelope. UCSD's Rommie Amaro said the research could enable a new approach to anti-flu drug development, through its finding "that an often-overlooked so-called 'secondary site' may be the first place the natural substrate of the flu binds."  ... '

P&G Launches Brand that kills some Coronaviruses

A surface cleaner, and its unclear if it is useful for the particular kind of virus involved.   The article talks about that later.  Overall NOT a claim for efficacy.  It is good to see companies looking at the possibilities. 

P&G launches brand that kills some coronaviruses, other germs   By Barrett J. Brunsman  – Staff reporter, Cincinnati Business Courier

Feb 27, 2020, 5:15am EST Updated 6 hours ago

Procter & Gamble Co. has launched a new line of home sanitizing products formulated to kill bacteria as well as cold and flu viruses – including some forms of the human coronavirus.

The new brand’s name, Microban 24, refers to the product’s ability to protect surfaces against germs for an entire day.

“Microban 24 provides a protective shield that keeps killing bacteria for a full 24 hours, even when the surface is touched or contacted multiple times,” stated the Cincinnati-based maker of consumer goods (NYSE: PG). ..... ' 

Wharton on Global Economic Impact of Coronavirus

Considerable piece here from Wharton.  Notable for other implications for epidemics and their influence on economic systems.  The embedding of uncertainty in large scale effects.  Notable the mention of SARS example now two decades ago.

Containing the Coronavirus: What’s the Risk to the Global Economy?

On Monday, February 24, stock indices tumbled, spooked by reports that the coronavirus outbreak that emerged in China is spreading to countries including Italy, Iran and South Korea. A day later, trading in stocks across world markets remained choppy, reflecting hope that the economic fallout might be manageable — just as damage from the SARS epidemic was some two decades ago — but also fear that the economic impact could be significant and linger longer.

The markets’ movements mirror the uncertainty that prevails and persists not just in the U.S. but all over the world. Several weeks into the coronavirus outbreak that has brought the world’s second largest economy to its knees, some of the most basic aspects of the virus remain unknown. It’s not yet clear how widely beyond China COVID-19 will spread; this week, numbers of infected individuals have surged outside China. Still, exactly how it is transmitted, how easily, and how lethal it might be are aspects of this coronavirus that remain to be uncovered, according to University of Pennsylvania scientists.

As the human toll mounts, so does the economic damage. The business realm, of course, tends to shudder in the face of uncertainty, and right now, with reports on the seriousness of the coronavirus evolving each day if not each hour, the eyes of commerce are on epidemiology.  ... " 

Coronavirus Influences P&G China Business

My former employer reports.   Would seem now that the prediction of epidemics and their influence needs to be added to supply chain demand. 

Some in-store demand has shifted to the Internet, but delivery capability is limited, P&G says.
P&G warns coronavirus is disrupting China business in FoxBusiness

The country is P&G's second-largest market

Procter & Gamble warned the coronavirus outbreak is curbing in-store sales and limiting the ability of its digital operations to meet demand.

Shares of the Cincinnati-based consumer goods maker were little changed following the update.
“China is our second-largest market -- sales and profit. Store traffic is down considerably, with many stores closed or operating with reduced hours,” Jon Moeller, chief financial officer, said in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Thursday. “Some of the demand has shifted online, but supply of delivery operators and labor is limited.”  ... '

Wuhan Virus Detected by AI Epidemiologist

Quite interesting revelation.  The depth of this discovery still unclear.  Recall our work in detecting epidemics and bioterror by retail data.

AI Epidemiologist Sent First Warnings of Wuhan Virus in Wired via CACM   By Eric Niiler

Canadian health monitoring platform BlueDot was the first organization to alert its customers to the outbreak of coronavirus, on Dec. 31. BlueDot’s algorithm analyzes foreign-language news reports, animal and plant disease networks, and governmental information in order to warn its clients to avoid dangerous regions where disease outbreaks appear to be occurring. The algorithm also considers global airline ticketing data, to help predict where and when infected residents are traveling. BlueDot correctly predicted the coronavirus would jump from Wuhan, China, to Bangkok, Seoul, Taipei, and Tokyo in the days following its initial appearance. Said BlueDot CEO Kamran Khan, “What we have done is use natural language processing and machine learning to train this engine to recognize whether this is an outbreak of anthrax in Mongolia versus a reunion of the heavy metal band Anthrax.”

Epidemics and use of Personal GPS Data

Recall our work with bioterrorism modeling, link below.  Not just a matter of disease epidemics.

During Epidemics, Access to GPS Data from Smartphones Can Be Crucial
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (Switzerland)
By Sandrine Perroud

Researchers at Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) in Switzerland and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have found that human mobility is a major factor in the spread of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue. The researchers used mobile phone data and census models to effectively predict the spatial distribution of dengue cases in Singapore, based on data from actual reported cases in 2013 and 2014. The team also demonstrated that the types of data used in their study could be obtained without infringing on people's privacy. Said EPFL's Emanuele Massaro, "We need to think seriously about changing the law around accessing this kind of information – not just for scientific research, but for wider prevention and public health reasons." ... '

Analytics to Combat Opiod Epidemic

Becoming an epidemic in our area.  Good thoughts here, but would have liked more in the area of pattern detection, predictive and prescriptive applications.  Though once you did more accurate data gathering,  you would get more opportunity for intelligent applications. Someone doing that specifically in this space, contact me, willing to support ?

How law enforcement can use analytics to combat the opioid epidemic   
By David Kennedy on SAS Voices 

A steady drumbeat of news coverage makes one thing clear: Opioid abuse is rising and has reached epidemic levels throughout our country. Overdoses from the diversion and abuse of prescription opioids are one cause of the surge in deaths. Overdoses from heroin and other illicit synthetic opioids (such as heroin, fentanyl and carfentanil) are an even greater issue, resulting in approximately twice as many fatalities as prescription opioids. Law makers, health departments and the medical community are all searching for ways to slow the volume and diversion of prescription drugs, but law enforcement officers are at the front lines of the battle.

Domestic violence calls, emergency medical calls, narcotics investigations and patrol-related activity can all involve an officer encountering someone overdosing from opioids. Today, many officers are put in the role of drug counselor and medical worker as much as they are enforcement officer. We must understand what officers are experiencing, what resources they need to more effectively help those in need -- and the future threats they may face. ... "

How Viruses Spread

An impressive visual and description of of how viruses spread.  In Quartz   " ... A new genetic tool maps how deadly viruses spread around the world in real time ... ".   Recall a recent post on Kellogg work in using cell data for prediction.  Tag below on Epidemics.   And also links to our work on retail data for the same purpose.

Predicting Epidemics (Bioterror?) from Cell Data

If you have followed this blog for a long time, we looked at how to predict epidemics through OTC drug purchase data.  Here is a related idea that might be combined with earlier work.  Links to Bioterror detection?  See the tag links below.

Using Cell Phone Data to Predict the Next Epidemic    Insight Kellogg.
Who you call is linked to where you travel, which dictates how viruses spread.

Based on the research of Pierre Deville, Chaoming Song, Nathan Eagle, Albert-László Barabási and Dashun Wang  ... Can big data about whom we call be used to predict how a viral epidemic will spread?  .... " 

Flu Prediction Cognitive System

Using Watson, Twitter and CDC Data for predicting flu epidemics. Modeling under specific contexts. By Prof. Dr. Gordon Pipa, University of Osnabrueck  Embedded in the slide presentation.....    Audio recording.   Reminiscent of some of our own work in bioterror modeling , previously mentioned here.

Clorox Mapping Flu Real Time with Social

This relates to some work we did in the 90s on detecting epidemics and bioterror.  See the tag,

Clorox analyzes social media to predict flu outbreaks 
Clorox is promoting its sanitation products with an online push called Clorox Cold & Flu Pulse, which gives consumers a real-time flu report for their locality based on analysis of social media conversations. Clorox's tool is the first to use social chatter for flu predictions, rather than mapping outbreaks as they happen, said marketing professor Jonah Berger. Consumers can also add their own information using the hashtag #StoptheSpread. MediaPost Communications (10/28)

Tracking Epidemics

App sources and access to Big data about Ebola and other communicable diseases, data visualization examples.

National Retail Data Monitor

Colleague Mike Robinson of Laverdad Marketing  reminded me of an effort we were involved in: The National Retail Data Monitor.   Which is designed  to detect pharma sales patterns to provide early warning for epidemics and bio terrorism.  Mike did a great job supporting this early form of real time big data mining. Check out his inspired marketing work as well.