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Friday, August 23, 2019

Visions of the Future, Then and Now

Quite a considerable look at how future has been predicted, why were they so accurate? what sources can we look at today?    As a futurist myself, always seeking sources.   Read it:

Futurology: How a group of visionaries predicted today's world a century ago   by Max Saunders, The Conversation in Techexplore

From shamanic ritual to horoscopes, humans have always tried to predict the future. Today, trusting predictions and prophecies has become part of daily life. From the weather forecast to the time the sat-nav says we will reach our destination, our lives are built around futuristic fictions.

Of course, while we may sometimes feel betrayed by our local meteorologist, trusting their foresight is a lot more rational than putting the same stock in a TV psychic. This shift toward more evidence-based guesswork came about in the 20th century: futurologists began to see what prediction looked like when based on a scientific understanding of the world, rather than the traditional bases of prophecy (religion, magic, or dream). Genetic modification, space stations, wind power, artificial wombs, video phones, wireless internet, and cyborgs were all foreseen by "futurologists" from the 1920s and 1930s. Such visions seemed like science fiction when first published.

They all appeared in the brilliant and innovative "To-Day and To-Morrow" books from the 1920s, which signal the beginning of our modern conception of futurology, in which prophecy gives way to scientific forecasting. This series of over 100 books provided humanity—and science fiction—with key insights and inspiration. I've been immersed in them for the last few years while writing the first book about these fascinating works—and have found that these pioneering futurologists have a lot to teach us.

In their early responses to the technologies emerging then—aircraft, radio, recording, robotics, television—the writers grasped how those innovations were changing our sense of who we are. And they often gave startlingly canny previews of what was coming next, as in the case of Archibald Low, who in his 1924 book Wireless Possibilities, predicted the mobile phone: "In a few years time we shall be able to chat to our friends in an airplane and in the streets with the help of a pocket wireless set."  .... " 

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