Get There Early

We have worked with Bob Johansen of the Institute for the Future since 1978. They have helped us in many ways, including early involvement in the concept development of our innovation centers. Bob has now written a new book: Get There Early : Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present. I received an early copy and just finished it. P&G's Bob McDonald is one of the jacket commenters.

The book is a companion piece to IFTF's ten year forecast, 2006-2016. That map is included in the book jacket. I have participated in some of the sessions that led to this map. The book contains quite a few P&G examples, most fairly well known An early one is their recommendation that P&G do a reverse mentorship in the Biotech area. I am unfamiliar with the actual results that derived from that example. I was involved with other innovation oriented work, and their input there was very useful.

The book's title idea is the same one that has driven IFTF since the 70s. You know you can't predict, so you need to forecast, so you can get get there early by sensing the future. It has similarities to scenario analysis. The book outlines IFTF's techniques, which originated with the 'Delphi Technique' at the Rand corporation. And developed and expanded more recently their involvement with VUCA: Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity. They apologetically trace this approach to its US military origins. The other technique highlighted is what they call their Foresight-Insight-Action cycle, a theme throughout the book.

The difference between problems and dilemmas is nicely put. It emphasises an understanding of what can be done about challenges in business. Towards the end of the book Johansen talks about after action reviews (AAR) which emphasizes learning from failures. That research is often about 'failing in interesting ways'. Something we do not do very well. As someone with engineering origins, I have always been problem rather than dilemma oriented. The book makes the case that in a VUCA world that cannot often be done. I think that is overemphasized in the book. There are problems that can be solved analytically. If we don't even try, we won't solve them. Note the relationship to other topics in vogue today .... design vs engineering and complexity vs optimization.

His view of Powerpoints is intriguing, suggesting that they be used non-linearly, the way a person uses cuts in an iPod. I like the idea, as long as the elements are true when they stand by themselves. Lots of interesting examples in this book gathered over their years of consulting.

In the middle of the book there is a large section on 'immersion', which is a broad term they use for all kinds of simulation. Nicely done in its breadth, but not in its depth. That being my own world, I would have hoped they would provide more examples of digital simulation, and some examples of how to get started. Simulation also quickly gets into the realm of the difference between forecasting and prediction. It's hard to separate the difference for non engineering management. Yet learning in simulation environments is often be more about the journey than arriving at a precise solution.

I found this book to be a fun and easy read, but I have been involved with portions of this process for years, and have an established interest. Others may find this like many business books, with no direct answers, and thus too squishy to add to the reading list. It is worth a read, and the map is worth trying to understand, the footnotes have some excellent links that remind me of related work we have followed.

Best Quote:" ... Great Managers help eccentric people produce" . Peter Drucker to Bob Johansen and A.G. Lafley ... A challenge?